ETF has experienced 6 consecutive days of net inflows. Will Bitcoin initiate an $80k short squeeze battle?

By Ma He, Foresight News

On April 23, Bitcoin is quoted at around $78,000. It already rose above $79,000 yesterday, reaching a new high since February this year. ETH is still oscillating around $2,400, while some altcoins have surged sharply.

According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, total liquidation of open contracts across the entire network was $462 million, with $353 million of liquidations affecting short positions. According to the latest CMC data, the market fear and greed index has risen back to 60, and sentiment remains neutral.

Global risk assets continue to rebound. US stocks hit new all-time highs again yesterday: the S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% on the day; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,657.57 points, up 1.64% and setting a fresh record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points or 0.69%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) held steady at around 98.61 at a high level, with only slight fluctuations versus the previous day.

Trump announces extension of ceasefire on Wednesday

On Wednesday, Trump announced that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement would be extended by 3 to 5 days, on top of strong Q1 corporate earnings, allowing US stocks to quickly rebound from the previous two days of continuous pullback.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed at fresh highs, with semiconductor stocks marking a 16-day streak of gains. Oil prices surged in parallel, showing a divergence from market optimism.

Trump said the ceasefire extension was at the request of the Pakistan mediators, adding that US-Iran talks could restart as early as Friday. However, Iran later denied reports that negotiations might be held on Friday.

The Iranian president said he “welcomes dialogue and agreements,” but also criticized Trump for having “contradictory words and actions.” Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that if the blockade is not lifted, a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved.

Oil prices jumped sharply on Wednesday and continued rising this week for a third consecutive day. WTI crude oil futures rebounded to the level before the negotiations broke down, while Brent crude is approaching $102.

On Wednesday, all three major US stock indexes closed higher. The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high, and the Nasdaq reached a record peak, with technology stocks leading this round of gains. The S&P 500 technology sector rose by about 2%, the best performance among the 11 sectors.

In addition, according to the latest Polymarket data, the probability the market is pricing in for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates once this year has risen to 30%.

As expectations for easing Middle East tensions build up, the US dollar’s safe-haven appeal has weakened significantly. Combined with the market’s renewed bets on the Fed cutting rates within this year, global capital is accelerating its withdrawal from dollar assets. Data shows that the US dollar index has fallen by about 2.3% from its late-March peak, or is posting the worst single-month performance since last August.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is essentially driven by a double force: the “waning risk premium + a shift in policy expectations.” JPMorgan has restarted its strategy of shorting the US dollar, turning bullish on risk currencies such as the Australian dollar. Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that emerging-market currencies have rebounded across the board, reflecting a clear return in global risk appetite.

BTC spot ETF achieves 6 consecutive days of net inflows

In terms of BTC spot ETF data, it has achieved 6 days of sustained net inflows. From April 14 to 21, the ETFs recorded positive total net inflows on every day.

Among them, on April 17, the single-day net inflow reached as high as $663.91 million, the highest level in the recent period. On April 14 and April 20, net inflows were $411.5 million and $238.37 million, respectively. April 15 contributed $186 million.

As for net outflows, they occurred on only 4 days, and the daily outflow amount never exceeded $400 million.

For Ethereum spot ETFs, since April 9 of this year, there has been a rare 9-day streak of consecutive net inflows.

On April 17 in particular, it recorded a net inflow of $127 million in a single day, setting a new high for the month. As for net outflows this month, they occurred on only 4 days.

Regarding stablecoin data, according to DefiLlama, it has now risen to $320.6 billion, with a net inflow of $635 million over the past 7 days.

Outlook

Glassnode released a data chart saying that Bitcoin has reclaimed the $78,000 level, with both spot demand and ETF capital inflows returning. Short positions, together with negative funding rates, are building the potential for a short squeeze. However, the cautionary signals from overly high realized profits and subdued volatility remain, and the upside space around $80,000 faces resistance.

BIT tweeted that new sources of Bitcoin demand are gradually becoming visible. Strategy’s continuous accumulation provides the market with relatively stable buy-side support, and clearer signs of capital flowing in for allocation purposes are also emerging. Specifically, Coinbase Premium continues to rise, and daily net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached about $664.39 million, the highest since mid-January.

These signals collectively point to one direction: the demand structure is being repaired. Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and US spot demand are forming a combined force. Support at the market’s low points is becoming more solid, and market participation is also picking up—there is a clear difference from the environment during the prior correction phase. Coupled with yesterday’s analysis of stablecoin funds flowing back, support on the liquidity front is also gradually strengthening. These two clues reinforce each other, suggesting the market may be gradually constructing a new trading range. This does not mean the trend will rise in a straight line, but if the above trends continue, the probability that prices push toward the upper end of the range is increasing.