ETH is currently in a narrow consolidation phase, approaching a critical point where bullish and bearish directions will soon be decided:

Bullish scenario (probability approximately 50–55%): daily bull flag + KDJ oversold buildup + continuous ETF/institutional buying + KelpDAO risk convergence. If volume breaks through $2,335–$2,350, it can confirm a 4-hour bullish reversal, quickly rising to $2,370–$2,420. The probability of an upward breakout after triangle convergence is slightly higher.
Bearish scenario (to be cautious of): 15-minute SAR bearish + 4-hour/daily MACD death cross unresolved + TD Sequential bearish signal + Fear Index at 31. If support at $2,307–$2,300 fails, the downward targets are $2,280 → $2,250 → $2,200, with an extreme target of $2,050.
Trading suggestions:
Maintain a bullish outlook above $2,300, with a short-term stop loss below $2,295.
Watch for a breakout above $2,335–$2,350: volume breakout of this level is a confirmation signal for a 4-hour bullish reversal, can add to long positions, targeting $2,370–$2,420.
$2,307–$2,313 is a short-term dip-buying zone: if it stabilizes after a pullback, consider light long positions with a stop loss at $2,295.
$2,300 is the dividing line between bullish and bearish: if broken downward, the trend turns bearish, requiring stop-loss exits or switching to a bearish outlook.
Triangle convergence is about to break out: a directional breakout is highly likely within the next 6–12 hours, closely monitor volume direction.
Note ETH’s relative weakness against BTC: if BTC breaks $80k but ETH remains below $2,320, it indicates funds are flowing into BTC, and ETH lacks independent upward momentum.