Recently, I've been paying close attention to global market changes and noticed an interesting phenomenon—on the surface, there are many positive signals, but behind the scenes, there are quite a few risks.

First, let's talk about the US-Iran situation. Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to reach an agreement, then extended it by one day to 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Pakistan has already proposed a ceasefire plan, and Iran has put forward ten suggestions, including lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It seems there is progress in the negotiations, but the details are worth examining.

Iran's proposal is that if an agreement is reached, they will open the strait but charge about 2 million USD per passing ship, splitting the fee with Oman. Trump responded that, why should Iran be the one charging, it should be the United States as the winner collecting the fees. Both sides have their own arguments, and the negotiations are still ongoing.

Most importantly, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon directly warned that this war could impact oil and commodity prices, further fueling inflation and causing interest rates to rise above market expectations. He said, "The challenges we face are enormous." This warning is not unfounded, because OPEC+ just announced plans to increase production in May, but in reality, they can't actually do so. Major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait can't increase output due to the war; the production quotas are just paper promises and don't help actual supply. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, these production increase commitments are empty words.

On the other hand, the U.S. stock market has actually risen. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have recorded four consecutive gains, with the Nasdaq up 0.54% and the S&P 500 up 0.44%. The storage chip sector performed well, with Seagate Technology rising over 5%. Google gained more than 1%, but Tesla fell over 2%. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is currently at $77,730, down 0.40% in 24 hours; Ethereum is at $2,320, up 0.10%.

Employment data also exceeded expectations. In March, non-farm payrolls increased by 178k jobs, far surpassing the expected 65k, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. It looks like the labor market is stabilizing. However, at the same time, the ISM Services PMI soared to 70.7, hitting a new high since October 2022, with a jump of 7.7 percentage points, the largest increase in nearly 14 years. Companies are under pressure, especially from rising energy costs.

So, the current situation is like this—stocks are rising, employment is improving, but geopolitical risks and inflation pressures are both present. OPEC+ says they will increase production, but they can't actually do so, which is like empty talk on paper. The real determinants of oil prices and market trends will still be whether the Strait of Hormuz can be opened smoothly. Whether this Tuesday's deadline will bring a turning point depends on the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Short-term volatility is likely to continue.