I recently looked at the market outlook and felt the volatility was quite large. The U.S. January nonfarm data was released, showing an added 130,000 positions, significantly above expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. Once this data came out, traders immediately pushed back their rate-cut expectations from June to July, and the overall market sentiment changed.

What’s interesting, though, is that although the January data looked good, the average monthly job gains for all of 2025 are only 15,000 positions, far below the previously cited 49,000, so the labor market is still somewhat weak. On top of that, with uncertainty from the tense U.S.-Iran situation and Trump considering withdrawing from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, market sentiment remains a bit hard to stabilize.

You can tell from the stock market reaction: all three major U.S. indices have a somewhat bearish tone. The Dow is down 0.13%, the Nasdaq is down 0.16%, and tech stocks are mixed. In the crypto market, Bitcoin is currently trading around 77.71K (compared with the earlier low of $66,866), and Ethereum is at 2.32K, with fluctuations throughout the past 24 hours. The U.S. dollar/Japanese yen has fallen 0.72%; if converted into yen, that’s roughly a move of about 20,000 yen. It feels like the whole market is digesting these economic and geopolitical signals.

U.S. Treasury yields are also rising. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved back to 4.17%, and the market is repricing expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy. The Congressional Budget Office has also issued a warning that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will reach a historical high, and these long-term factors are influencing investor sentiment as well. In the short term, it’s still important to watch the progress of Iran negotiations and Trump’s policy direction, as both could bring new market volatility.