ETH Medium to Long-Term Outlook

Weekend medium to long-term positioning, I still firmly believe in a bearish overall trend for ETH. This round of market movement is only a rebound during a decline, not a trend reversal.

1-hour timeframe shows that the "Concubine" has formed a standard converging triangle pattern, with highs and lows continuously converging and consolidating sideways. This typical accumulation pattern will inevitably lead to a breakout-level large trend, currently in the final narrow-range oscillation window before a trend change. Looking at a larger cycle, the previous upward channel on the daily chart has been effectively broken, and even if a rebound occurs recently, it has not been able to reclaim the key support of the channel, which is a typical rebound after a break; on the monthly chart, the major trend is clearly defined. This round of market movement is just an oversold rebound after a deep decline, with no momentum for bulls to follow through, and the rebound strength continues to weaken, lacking the fundamental support for a trend reversal.

This kind of movement is essentially a typical false rally within a downtrend, even if short-term negotiations between the US and Iran reach an agreement, causing a pulse-like surge driven by sentiment, it is only a fleeting short-term positive stimulus, not enough to reverse the medium to long-term bearish trend. When the positive factors fade, the market will revert to a bearish dominance, with the main force using the false rally as an opportunity for further accumulation. The medium to long-term structure has already shifted from an upward trend to a rebound within a downtrend, with clearly insufficient rebound strength. The market is entering a weak convergence phase before a trend change, and the bearish major trend remains unchanged. Once short-term sentiment benefits fade, the market rhythm will still be firmly controlled by the bears.

For the short-term trend change window, focus on two critical levels:
Bullish: Watch closely for a breakout around 2325. If a volume breakout occurs and the price retests and stabilizes, a short-term continuation of the rally is expected. The first target above is 2375; if the momentum continues strongly without stagnation, it can further target around 2400.

Bearish: Focus on the breakdown of 2310. If a volume breakdown occurs and a rebound is weak, forming a false breakout with a spike and increasing volume, then confidently enter short positions. The first short-term profit-taking target is around 2270. If this level is broken, the downside space will be fully opened.

Medium to Long-Term Core Positioning Personal Advice

ETH: Lightly build short positions in batches around the 2370-2400 range, add on dips near 2500. The first medium to long-term target is down to 2200; if broken, hold for further downside towards the 2000 level. Under a large bearish trend, the downside potential is much greater than expected! #加密市场行情震荡 #美伊谈判陷入僵局