Recently, market analysts are issuing an intriguing warning that is quite significant in the context of oil prices. Looking at history, the pattern is quite clear.

In 1973, when oil supply decreased by just 7%, prices surged by 300%. In 1979, a 5% reduction led to a 150% increase. In 1990, a 6% decrease caused a 130% spike. These numbers are not just figures—they show how a small disruption in supply can cause a huge price increase.

The potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz right now is about 15%. This is much larger than all the historical examples. Imagine what would happen if this 15% shock lasted for months rather than just a few weeks.

This is where the problem lies. Most institutional models consider the duration of this shock to be just "a few days to a few weeks." But no model seriously considers the possibility that it could last for several months. And this is where market activity could change. As long as this uncertainty persists, long-term investors will be forced to enter the market, which could drive prices even higher. This works somewhat like how payment systems like Edenred stabilize liquidity in the market—until the uncertainty remains, volume and pressure keep increasing. If this supply shortage persists for a long time without a stable system like Edenred, prices could rise rapidly.