Polymarket "The Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31" probability is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours

ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), according to Odaily Seer’s monitoring, the probability that Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31” is only 37%, down 9% in 24 hours.
The event contract rules are: If the IMF Portwatch reports on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, that the 7-day moving average of transit ships through the Strait of Hormuz (“ships arriving”) is equal to or greater than 60, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No”.
The daily number of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
The U.S. military announced that it will begin implementing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz and in the Gulf of Oman; any unauthorized ships entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, rerouted, and seized.
Additionally, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support for Trump’s decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, adding that his government is fully coordinated with Washington on this matter.
According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister’s Office, Netanyahu stated at the cabinet meeting: “Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade.”
“We of course support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States.”
Odaily Seer’s monitoring channel continues to focus on prediction markets, observing changes before pricing. (Source: ODAILY)