Ethereum's recent trend does indeed cause some concern. According to analysis by the Bitwise research team, if the decline continues, ETH could drop to around $1,500, which means a 22% decrease. It sounds alarming, but they say this is just the worst-case scenario, similar to the long downturn period in 2018.

Interestingly, Bitwise researchers point out that Ethereum's fate is mainly still tied to Bitcoin. When Bitcoin drops 10%, Ethereum tends to fall even more sharply because of its higher correlation and volatility. Currently, the market seems to be only watching the price movements, ignoring other positive news.

However, from a fundamental perspective, Ethereum's conditions are actually quite good. The US spot ETH fund has already launched, the stablecoin ecosystem is thriving, and the regulatory environment is gradually becoming clearer. It would logically be expected to perform better.

An interesting detail is that, according to signals from the options market, extreme bearish bets have decreased. Currently, most options are concentrated in the $2,100 to $2,400 range. If Ethereum can return to this price level, traders will be forced to buy to hedge risks, which could trigger a rebound. Bitwise's analysis believes that as long as there are clear policy positives or ETF purchase volumes exceed new supply, Ethereum has the chance to rally again. Now, it all depends on whether such catalysts will appear.