Last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw another inflow of $787 million, and Ethereum also experienced $80.2 million in capital inflows. It seems that institutions are still actively positioning, with the two major players, IBIT and GBTC, absorbing most of the funds.

Interestingly, the options market sentiment appears somewhat cautious. Looking at the data for Bitcoin spot ETF options, implied volatility is around 50%, and demand for put options is particularly strong—especially the $60,000 puts, with open interest approaching $1.5 billion, the highest among all strike prices. It feels like large investors are seriously hedging, fearing a downward move in price.

Even more interesting is that institutional attitudes are changing. The hedge funds that previously drove Bitcoin ETF prices higher are now collectively retreating in Q4. Major players like Brevan Howard have directly cut their holdings in the iShares Bitcoin Trust by 86%, from $2.4 billion to $275 million. Such a scale of reduction indicates that institutional confidence in the market’s future is indeed wavering.

Looking at the price from six months ago, Bitcoin has experienced quite a bit of volatility since then, and the current trend is somewhat hard to interpret. On one hand, ETFs are still attracting capital; on the other hand, large investors are reducing their holdings, and the options market is frantically buying insurance. $53,000 is seen by many analysts as a medium-term support level, but whether it can hold depends on how the macro environment unfolds next. Anyway, the current situation is: new money is flowing in, old money is fleeing, and the market is caught in a dilemma.