Recently, I've seen people treat on-chain large transfers and movements of exchange hot and cold wallets as "smart money" signals, trying to follow and copy. To be honest, don't jump to conclusions too quickly: whether that transfer is for building a position or for hedging, they have completely different implications.

I personally see whales more like an electrocardiogram of options volatility: cash inflows and outflows in the same direction, combined with derivatives position changes, might just be risk shifting, not trying to pump or dump the market. Especially when funds move into exchanges, it doesn't necessarily mean selling; it could be for margin trading. Moving funds out doesn't necessarily mean buying; it could be transferring to cold wallets or rebalancing market-making positions.

Anyway, when I see large addresses acting, I first look for any hedging traces (like simultaneously adding opposite positions). If there's no evidence, I treat it as noise… Otherwise, following in might end up losing on gas fees and emotions. That's all for now.