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The prospects for a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran decrease in likelihood of being reached by June 30, 2026.
According to ME News on April 24 (UTC+8), forecast market data shows that, in the prediction about whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace agreement before June 30, 2026, the trading probability for the “Yes” option fell from 63.5% the previous day to 42.5%, a single-day drop of 21.0 percentage points.