#美伊谈判陷入僵局

US-Iran Ceasefire on Shaky Ground: Will Hormuz Blockade Trigger Global Oil Shock?

The US-Iran ceasefire announced by President Trump is already showing cracks. Iran has seized two cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and reimposed transit restrictions, citing "breaches of trust" by Washington. Tehran demands its permission for ships to cross, while Trump claims "total control" over the waterway. With Iran's top negotiator reportedly resigning and the IRGC tightening its grip, the ceasefire appears more like a temporary pause than a path to peace.

Hormuz Blockade Risk: High and Rising

A fifth of global oil and LNG transits through Hormuz. The strait is now effectively at a standstill, with tanker traffic near historic lows. Both sides have resorted to ship seizures during the ceasefire. Asian shipowners may test the waters first, but Western commercial fleets remain sidelined. If negotiations collapse entirely, a full blockade becomes a realistic scenario, cutting off millions of barrels daily from global markets.

Oil and Market Outlook if Conflict Escalates

Brent has already breached $104/barrel on negotiation jitters. Should Hormuz close completely, oil could spike toward $120-130 range as supply disruption dwarfs current strategic reserve releases. Energy-intensive sectors and import-dependent economies face immediate pressure. Risk assets would likely selloff as inflation expectations resurge, complicating central bank policy trajectories. Safe havens and energy exporters stand to benefit in the short term.

The next 48-72 hours are critical. Without a unified Iranian proposal or renewed mediator engagement, this ceasefire risks becoming the calm before a much larger storm.