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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), Coin Bureau founder and crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin pointed out that Bitcoin’s recovery currently appears fragile, and geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures from the Middle East war will influence market performance in the second quarter of 2026. Puckrin predicts that the earliest rate cuts may not occur until the third or fourth quarter. He believes that for Bitcoin to reach $90k, three conditions must be met: easing geopolitical tensions, oil prices falling back to around $80, and weak economic data.
The current Bitcoin price is approximately $71,276, facing resistance at $74,000 and below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, Bitcoin had broken through $73,000 but retreated due to the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations and Trump’s announcement of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, within the Federal Reserve FOMC, opinions on rate cuts in 2026 are divided. CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates at the current level in both upcoming meetings exceeds 98%. (Source: MLion)