I have recently noticed a quite interesting phenomenon in the energy market. After conflicts from the end of February, WTI crude oil prices for the first time in four years surpassed Brent – this is not coincidental but reflects a profound shift in how the market prices risk.

What is actually happening is a "safe revaluation" across the entire market. Previously, Brent was always priced higher because it represented global trade flows. But when the Strait of Hormuz was closed, oil from the Persian Gulf, Oman, and the UAE suddenly had to bear a huge "risk discount" – skyrocketing shipping insurance costs, with some exports completely paralyzed.

Conversely, WTI has a significant advantage: it is transported via an established pipeline system directly to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. According to Germini, founder of Germini Energy, the story is very simple: "The market no longer pays more for 'global market representative' oil. They pay more for oil 'that they can actually hold.'"

As a result, an extreme situation has emerged. December WTI futures are currently around $77 per barrel, down as much as $25 from May, while spot Brent prices have exceeded $140. Investors are both buying physical supplies to cope with current supply disruptions and betting that the conflict will ease in the coming months.

But according to experts from Stratas Advisors, the situation could become more tense. With the US naval blockade order, spot Brent prices could challenge the $160-190 range in the next few weeks. If oil prices stay high for a long time, "demand destruction" will occur – consumers will significantly cut back on usage, potentially causing a global recession.

It seems this energy crisis could be the final card for both the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table. The market is waiting to see what happens next.