Recently I checked the charts and saw something interesting: the cryptocurrency market finally broke a 6-week bearish streak. The total market capitalization increased by 2% that week, which after so many declines felt like a breath of fresh air.

The curious thing is that it wasn't just speculation. I saw that the DeFi market was quite active: about 4 billion dollars entered in total value locked, and stablecoins added another 2.3 billion dollars in flows. Ethereum maintained its dominance with nearly 60% of TVL. Even real-world assets (RWA) gained around 770 million dollars. That tells you something more serious was happening behind the rebound.

But well, things cooled down quickly. The market recovered about 14 percentage points from 2.16 trillion to 2.48 trillion, but then dropped back to 2.28 trillion. Typical when there's a lot of uncertainty and traders take quick profits.

As for what’s next, honestly the market remains divided. Some analysts see possible drops of up to 30% from there. Prediction markets (like Polymarket) gave an 80% chance that Bitcoin would fall to 2.3B. They also saw a 44% chance of recovery to 770M and a 42% chance of retesting 4B. Everything is quite open.

The reality is that as long as there is so much geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, the market will continue to be volatile. The bears regained control in the second half of that week, so it’s still unclear whether it was a true trend change or just a breather. We’ll have to keep observing how the market behaves in the upcoming movements.