The CLARITY Act is expected to be addressed in May... marking delays as the biggest variable

The virtual asset market structure bill “CLARITY Act” in the U.S. Senate is expected to be completed before the end of May 2026, reigniting long-delayed discussions on U.S. cryptocurrency regulation and whether they will accelerate again. However, due to procedural delays within the Senate and intertwined interests between industry and politics, whether the “May processing” can become a reality remains uncertain.

The bill aims to clarify the oversight system of the cryptocurrency market, defining basic “rules” such as which digital assets are securities or commodities. The market is highly sensitive to the bill’s progress, believing it could impact the overall regulatory environment for products based on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), stablecoins, and exchanges.

Moreno: “Will be completed by the end of May”… Delay in markup is the biggest variable

Senator Bernie Moreno stated at an event in Washington, D.C.: “We believe we will complete this by the end of May,” showing confidence in the timetable for the CLARITY Act. The bill had once gained momentum, but analysts believe that with issues arising in Senate procedures, the timetable is being pushed back.

The key lies in the timing of the “markup.” Markup is the process where the standing committee revises and finalizes the bill text; if this step cannot be completed, it is difficult to proceed to a full chamber vote. Reports indicate that a Republican senator on the Senate Banking Committee is currently pressuring to delay the markup until May, which raises concerns that the bill’s processing time could be further extended.

Political schedule, opposition from the banking industry, and global competition… “The U.S. may fall behind”

Moreno warned that if the “window” in May is missed, the entire cryptocurrency regulation could be stalled for a long time. His judgment is based on Washington’s political schedule—intertwined with elections and hot-button issues—once the opportunity is missed, the bill may be pushed behind other priorities.

Regarding major concerns raised by the banking industry about stablecoin yields (interest), he strongly distances himself, calling it “noise.” Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if the U.S. delays regulation, innovation might flow to Dubai, Singapore, and other jurisdictions. With competitors like Russia legalizing Bitcoin (BTC) for cross-border trade, people are increasingly aware that the more the U.S. allows regulatory gaps, the more likely it is to lose its leading position.

Polymarket probability rises from 38% to 46%… “The next few weeks will be a watershed”

Regulatory uncertainty is immediately reflected in market sentiment. On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the “CLARITY Act” will pass in 2026 rose from 38% to 46% after Moreno’s speech. While expectations have increased, some analysts believe this figure remains below 50%, so delays cannot be ruled out.

Ultimately, the key is whether the Senate can quickly confirm the markup schedule and push it to a full chamber vote. Against the backdrop of the USD/KRW exchange rate fluctuating around 1 USD to 1,483.30 KRW, whether the “clarity” of U.S. cryptocurrency regulation can be guaranteed will continue to be a major variable influencing future global capital flows and the competitiveness of the digital asset industry.

Article summary by TokenPost.ai

🔎 Market interpretation - The U.S. Senate’s CLARITY Act is expected to be processed by the end of May 2026, reigniting long-delayed regulatory discussions - But if the Senate’s internal “markup” schedule (markup) is delayed, the bill may fail to proceed to a full vote, risking further setbacks - Polymarket probability of passing in 2026 rises from 38% to 46%, but uncertainty remains high, with “hope and caution” coexist 💡 Strategic points - Short-term focus: whether the Senate Banking Committee’s markup schedule is confirmed (confirmation strengthens expectations, delays increase volatility) - Industry impact: reevaluation of overall regulation costs and business models for BTC/ETH-based products (ETFs, etc.), stablecoins (interest/yield structures), exchanges/brokers, etc. - Risk management: missing the “May window” could lead to long-term stagnation due to election and political schedules; event-driven (policy-triggered) volatility should be guarded against - Competitive landscape: warnings about capital and innovation flowing to Dubai, Singapore, and other jurisdictions with proactive regulation are intensifying; the clarity of U.S. regulation itself is becoming a variable affecting global capital flows 📘 Terminology explanation - CLARITY Act: a U.S. market structure bill aimed at clarifying whether digital assets are securities or commodities and establishing oversight systems - Markup (markup): the process where standing committees revise and finalize bill texts, enabling smoother progression to full chamber votes - Polymarket (Polymarket): a prediction market estimating the probability of events (such as bill passage) based on market prices - Stablecoin interest (yield) debate: if stablecoins offer interest-like yields, it could trigger bank deposit outflows and regulatory conflicts

💡 FAQ (FAQ)

Q. What does the CLARITY Act attempt to change? It is a market structure bill aimed at clarifying whether digital assets are “securities” or “commodities” and establishing oversight systems, reducing jurisdiction and regulatory uncertainty from agencies like the SEC and CFTC. Clear rules could impact exchange operations, product launches (ETFs, etc.), and stablecoin business models. Q. Why is the “markup” schedule so important? Markup is a key step where the standing committee revises and finalizes the bill text. If delayed, it will be difficult to proceed to a full chamber vote, and if it overlaps with political schedules (elections, hot issues), the bill may be sidelined, causing long delays. Q. How does a delay in bill processing affect the market? Extended regulatory uncertainty could shake investor confidence and impact corporate plans in the U.S. As noted, even if the prediction market probability rises (38%→46%), it is not certain, and volatility may increase; there are also concerns that innovation and capital might flow to rapidly regulated regions like Dubai and Singapore.

TP AI note: The language model based on TokenPost.ai has summarized the article. Some main content or facts may be omitted or inconsistent.