Interests have already been divided

Speak of him, Jun
April 23, 2026, Iranian state media reported, Iranian Vice Speaker Haji Babai stated that Iran has received the first toll payment for the Strait of Hormuz, which has been deposited into the central bank account. This is not good news for the United States. The news signifies two things: first, despite strong opposition from the U.S., another toll station has been set up in the Oman Sea, but Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is actually strengthening.
The first payment has been received.
Second, the internal distribution of benefits in Iran has been preliminarily agreed upon.
Earlier, regarding the toll collection, how Iran internally divides the money was a problem. If not divided well, it could become a breakthrough point for the U.S. — the Revolutionary Guards taking too much, the civil government, and the clergy groups all disagreeing.
Iran’s ability to resist the U.S. for a month depends on unity. Civil officials, clergy, and Revolutionary Guards unite, but this unity ultimately depends on how the money is divided; it’s impossible to ignore it forever. Many reports mentioned that the toll money is directly transferred to a company closely linked to the Revolutionary Guards. At that time, I felt that this report looked like a black operation against Iran.
However, based on the operations of the Revolutionary Guards, it’s not impossible. If they really play this way, the three groups would not be able to stay united, especially the civil government, which benefits from resisting the U.S. but all the benefits go to the Guards? Therefore, the civil government strongly demands that the tolls be public, at least initially deposited into a public account before distribution.
According to the Iranian Vice Speaker’s statement, this has been achieved: the money is first deposited into the central bank account. Then, the central bank allocates it to the Ministry of Finance, which redistributes it. The Revolutionary Guards are very likely to get 30%, and the remaining goes to the civil government. Such a small piece of news has a huge impact. It means that the U.S. wants to split Iran internally, greatly increasing the difficulty, and the Revolutionary Guards have made concessions on profits. How big is this money?
No matter which side estimates, the result is the same: after full toll implementation, annual revenue will not be less than 70-80 billion USD, at worst around 50 billion USD. Iran’s annual budget is only about 80 billion USD. An extra year of fiscal income, even at 50 billion USD, 70% of that is 35 billion USD — a huge sum. The benefits the U.S. offers probably won’t exceed this number, making it difficult to win over the civil government. And this is only on the surface; after controlling the Strait, there are many potential benefits, such as the princes still daring to be arrogant?
In the future, will they have to pay tribute? Will major projects require cooperation? All of this will make it extremely difficult for the U.S. to win over the civil government. The amount of money the U.S. can offer is very limited; even if Iran demands the unfreezing of 20 billion USD in assets, the U.S. is unwilling. The problem isn’t whether they can unfreeze it, but even if they do, it’s meaningless. Iran’s total frozen assets amount to 100 billion USD.
Half of it has long been spent, and the remaining half is almost all the leverage the U.S. can offer. But obviously, it can’t be fully returned; otherwise, the opposition within the U.S. would eat up Trump. So, 10 to 20 billion USD is the limit. And this amount of money is insufficient compared to the profits from the Strait, especially since asset unfreezing is a one-time deal, while the Strait’s revenue is annual — hundreds of billions every year. A steady income is far better than a one-time deal.
Therefore, we will see that internal conflicts in Iran will still exist in the future, but they will decrease over time. Trump and Israel can still win over insiders, but the number of insiders will continue to decline.