Market Strategy Tips (Evening of April 23 – Since April 24)

Market Analysis
Since yesterday, the market has been in an extreme tug-of-war phase driven by escalating Federal Reserve policy independence debates + deadlock in Middle East geopolitical negotiations + reignited inflation concerns due to soaring oil prices. Gold, after oscillating at high levels, came under pressure and retreated, breaking below the $4,700 mark, triggering a technical oversold correction. Overall, a dual tug-of-war pattern is evident: “Dollar strength suppression + geopolitical safe-haven support.” Crude oil surged over 4% driven by escalating Hormuz Strait blockade, with Brent crude stabilizing above $105 per barrel. The crypto market moved narrowly sideways, with Bitcoin oscillating between $74,000 and $76,000, mainstream coins slightly rising, reflecting ongoing institutional capital inflows, cautious market sentiment, and anticipation of US GDP and core PCE data guidance, resulting in a weak consolidation pattern.
Macro News
1. Core macro theme: Escalating debate over Fed independence + mounting inflation rebound pressure + Middle East deadlock heightening stagflation risk

Fed policy expectations: On April 24, US time, Fed Chair Powell reiterated a firm stance at an IMF closed-door meeting, strongly defending the Fed’s monetary policy independence, explicitly rejecting political interference, and receiving collective support from multiple Fed officials. On the same day, voting member Harker stated that a rate cut in May is unlikely; if economic data show clear signals, the earliest rate adjustment could be in June. Governor Waller warned that if trade war shocks worsen the labor market, rate cuts could be implemented swiftly. April US manufacturing PMI preliminary data hit a nearly four-year high, with goods and services prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022, significantly increasing inflation rebound pressures and raising the Fed’s rate cut threshold. CME FedWatch indicates a 91.7% chance of holding rates in May and a 57.8% chance of rate cuts in June, leading to a tug-of-war in policy expectations. The US dollar index remains high at 99.0–99.5, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.32%, declining for three consecutive days.
The Middle East geopolitical deadlock has led to a sharp escalation in risk, with oil prices surging violently: Iran officially denied reaching an indefinite ceasefire agreement with the US, stating no plans to restart negotiations, and declared “no lifting of blockade, no opening of strait,” while publicly seizing foreign vessels in the Persian Gulf for the first time. Currently, only 17% of normal shipping volume passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with over 300 oil tankers and 172 million barrels of oil stranded in the Persian Gulf. US mine-clearing forces have tripled but still cannot restore normal navigation. As a result, international oil prices surged overnight, with Brent crude up 4.06%, reaching a high of $107.07 per barrel and stabilizing above $105; WTI crude rose 4.35%, closing at $97.00 per barrel, the largest single-day increase in nearly a month.
Global risk assets declined across the board: Overnight, European and US stock markets all fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.63%, Nasdaq down 0.59%, Dow Jones down 0.59%; Europe's STOXX 600 dropped 0.87%. Concerns over stagflation reignited, and risk appetite cooled across markets.

2. Gold: Under pressure at high levels, undergoing oversold correction, with intensified tug-of-war

Price trend: International spot gold opened overnight at $4,732, influenced by a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking at high levels, leading to a unilateral decline during the session, with a low of $4,690.60. It closed down 0.73% at $4,704.74. Oversold buying interest in the Asia-Europe session helped stabilize and rebound prices, currently at $4,706.71 per ounce, up 0.25% intraday. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.93% at $4,708.6, with a slight rebound during the day. Domestic markets: Shanghai Gold continuous contract closed down 0.20% at 1,041.50 yuan/gram; Gold T+D at 1,037.83 yuan/gram. Mainstream retail prices from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang remain in the 1,450–1,455 yuan/gram range, slightly lower than the previous day.
Core drivers:
Bearish pressure: The high-level oscillation of the dollar index, continued Fed rate cut expectations, combined with profit-taking from long positions at historically high levels, are the main reasons for gold’s decline; global gold ETF holdings continue to slightly outflow, and institutional chasing of highs has significantly cooled.
Support levels: The deadlock in Middle East negotiations and resulting geopolitical conflicts have driven safe-haven buying, coupled with the long-term logic of global central banks’ continued gold purchases—China’s central bank has increased gold holdings for 18 consecutive months—creating rigid physical demand support in the $4,650–$4,700 range, stabilizing gold after oversold correction.

Key ranges: Core support at $4,690–$4,700 (overnight low + psychological level), strong support at $4,650–$4,660; core resistance at $4,750–$4,780, with a strong resistance at the $4,800 round number.

3. Crypto Market: Narrow consolidation, Bitcoin stabilizing above $75,000, institutional funds continuing inflow

Price trend: Bitcoin opened overnight at $75,700, dipped to a low of $73,820 amid geopolitical risk shocks, then rebounded, reaching a high of $76,000. Currently at $75,400, maintaining narrow sideways movement over 24 hours. Ethereum also oscillated, with a low of $2,280 and a current price of $2,325, up 0.4% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and XRP rose slightly, generally up over 1% intraday.
Funds and on-chain data: US Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see large net inflows, totaling over $2.6 billion this week, with a single-day inflow of $917 million on April 23—the largest since Trump took office—indicating long-term institutional positioning remains unchanged. Over 160k traders liquidated positions in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation amounting to $420 million; long and short liquidations are roughly balanced, and leverage sentiment has cooled significantly. On-chain data shows whales withdrew 3,824 BTC from exchanges in 24 hours, with exchange liquidity tightening. Long-term holders’ share remains at a high of 68%, indicating strong underlying stability. The crypto fear and greed index stays at 45, still in neutral territory, with overall cautious market sentiment awaiting the US Q1 GDP data.
Key ranges: Core support at $73,000–$74,000 (intraday consolidation zone), strong support at $72,000–$73,000 (breakout level), core resistance at $76,000–$77,800, with a strong resistance at $80,000 round number.

Special Reminders
Gold is currently in an oversold correction phase after high-level oscillation; the $4,700 mark is a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Tonight’s US Q1 GDP data and tomorrow’s core PCE data will directly influence Fed policy expectations, with volatility risks sharply increasing around these releases. Avoid blindly bottom-fishing or taking contrarian positions; the $4,750 level has become a short-term strong resistance zone. Beware of risks of a second decline if data results exceed expectations. It is recommended to stay light on positions, mainly observing; only consider small long positions if the price stabilizes above the strong support zone of $4,650–$4,660, with a strict stop-loss at $4,620. Consider taking profits on rebounds above $4,750, and strictly control overall positions to avoid extreme volatility during data release periods.
The crypto rebound has entered a high-level narrow consolidation stage, with the $75,000 level serving as a short-term lifeline. Despite stable underlying holdings and ongoing institutional inflows, macro uncertainties remain, and the mid-term upward trend requires confirmation from additional capital. Do not chase high leverage or pile into high positions; keep exposure within 30%. Only consider incremental buying after a volume breakout above $77,800 resistance. If the price drops below $73,000 again, be alert to short-term correction risks, reduce positions promptly, and prioritize waiting for data confirmation before re-entering.