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Analyst: BTC recovery is fragile, Middle East situation may dominate market trends in 2026
ME News report: On April 13 (UTC+8), Nic Puckrin, the founder of Coin Bureau and a crypto market analyst, said that Bitcoin’s recovery currently looks fragile. He added that geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures brought by the Middle East war will affect the market’s performance in the second quarter of 2026. Puckrin predicts that the earliest rate cuts may not happen until the third or fourth quarter. He believes that for Bitcoin to reach $90,000, three conditions must be met: geopolitical tensions easing, oil prices falling back to around $80, and economic data remaining weak.
At present, Bitcoin is quoted at about $71,276, faces resistance at $74,000, and is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average. Previously, Bitcoin had broken above $73,000, but it pulled back after the failure of the U.S.-Iran negotiations and after Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, opinions within the Federal Reserve FOMC about rate cuts in 2026 are split. CME Fedwatch data shows that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged across both meetings exceeds 98%. (Source: MLion)