800k BTC institutions' covert battle: Who leads the market—BlackRock or Strategy?

Upon waking up, BTC briefly retreated from 79k after reaching that level.

On April 22, 2026, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holdings reached 806,700 bitcoins, worth about $63.7 billion, setting a new record for the fund. This data appeared after nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, during which IBIT accumulated an additional approximately 21,500 BTC.

News spread quickly, and the market cheered. Many believed this was a clear signal of an institutional bull market.

But CoinChain took a closer look at the data and found that things are not so simple. On the very day IBIT celebrated its new high, it was no longer the largest institutional holder.

1. A Quiet Accumulation Race

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) reclaimed the title of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with a position of 815,061 BTC, leading IBIT by about 8,300 BTC.

The gap isn’t large, but it’s meaningful.

The increase is more obvious when looking at net additions. Since 2026, Strategy has net added about 108,000 BTC, while IBIT only increased by about 16,800 BTC. Strategy’s net buy-in is over 2.3 times the new supply of Bitcoin during the same period.

This isn’t about who is right or wrong. Two paths, two logics, representing the fundamental differences in how two types of institutions are entering the market.

IBIT is passive. Its growth in holdings depends entirely on investor subscriptions. When someone buys IBIT shares, authorized participants buy Bitcoin in the spot market. Funds and buying actions are almost synchronized. Therefore, IBIT’s holdings are a real-time thermometer of institutional demand.

Strategy is active. It raises funds proactively through issuing convertible bonds, preferred stocks, and ATM equity offerings, then directly uses the money to buy Bitcoin. Once bought, it doesn’t sell, creating a de facto lock-up effect.

One reflects demand, the other creates demand. That’s the fundamental difference.

2. Over 10% of Circulating Supply Locked Up

Adding both, plus other spot ETFs, the institutional system has already controlled over 2 million BTC, accounting for more than 10% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

This is a number that warrants serious attention.

10% may sound small, but considering Bitcoin’s market liquidity depth, this proportion is enough to influence price formation mechanisms. CoinChain has mentioned multiple times in previous articles that Bitcoin’s liquidity is mainly concentrated in exchanges and ETF products. As institutions lock in more and more shares, the amount of freely tradable Bitcoin in the market decreases.

Market behavior in mid-April provides an observation window. Bitcoin repeatedly faced resistance around $76,000, but each dip’s bottom gradually lifted—from around $60,000 in March to about $70,000 in early April. This rising bottom pattern is highly correlated with continuous institutional buying.

During the week of April 13–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $996 million, the highest weekly level since January 2026. During the same period, Bitcoin’s price rose from around $73,000 to $76,000. On April 20, IBIT saw an inflow of $256 million, and Bitcoin’s price increased by 3.77% that day.

This is no coincidence. It’s the result of supply and demand dynamics at work.

3. Two Paths, Two Vulnerabilities

But CoinChain believes that any structure has vulnerabilities. The models of IBIT and Strategy each carry their own risks.

The risk for IBIT lies in the dual nature of its funds. ETF funds can flow in quickly, but can also flow out rapidly during macroeconomic downturns. In early 2026, during a market downturn, IBIT experienced weekly outflows. If market sentiment reverses one day, ETF outflows could directly pressure Bitcoin’s price. This is an inherent trait of passive products—the thresholds for subscription and redemption are equally low.

Strategy’s risk is rising financing costs. The annualized interest rate on STRC preferred shares has reached 11.5%. The company has shifted from low-interest convertible bonds to higher-cost financing tools. Its financing flywheel depends on a premium over net asset value (NAV). When the premium exceeds 1x, the company can issue shares at a price above the Bitcoin asset value and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. But this premium has shrunk from 3.4x in 2024 to about 1.2x in March 2026. The flywheel’s efficiency is declining.

If Bitcoin prices remain sluggish or the market loses confidence in the premium model, Strategy’s financing ability could be impacted. Will it be able to continue its aggressive accumulation? That’s uncertain.

4. Support and Conditions for an Institutional Bull Market

CoinChain does not intend to deny the trend of institutionalization. On the contrary, it believes the institutional transformation of the Bitcoin market is real and irreversible.

BlackRock has submitted an S-1 filing to the SEC, planning to launch a Bitcoin income ETF (ticker: BITA), which would generate returns through a covered call strategy on IBIT. This indicates that asset management giants are expanding from holding to active management.

It’s not just Bitcoin. Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen continuous net inflows, with $67.8 million on April 20 alone. Institutions are diversifying their crypto allocations.

The macro environment is also changing. The Iran conflict has led to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, keeping oil prices high—around $93 per barrel for WTI. Some funds are re-evaluating Bitcoin as a form of digital hard currency.

But do all these conditions together suffice to support a genuine institutional bull market?

CoinChain believes that institutionalization is a trend, but a bull market requires more conditions to resonate. Whether ETF inflows can be sustained, whether Strategy’s financing flywheel can keep spinning, and whether Bitcoin’s price can effectively break through key resistance levels under institutional buying—these three variables’ combined direction will determine if the institutional bull market is already unfolding or still a story to be awaited.