The Trump Effect Sparks Prediction Markets: Polymarket Trading Volume Surges but Faces Insider Trading Controversy

ME News Report, April 23 (UTC+8), the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket has become embroiled in insider trading controversy over prediction trades related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies and statements. Data shows that between April 5 and 8 alone, markets related to the Iran situation generated approximately 413 million predictions, involving over $100 million in funds. Analysis indicates that Trump’s highly uncertain decision-making style significantly increased activity in prediction markets, with topics such as whether he would take military action against Iran or push for a ceasefire becoming high-frequency trading targets. Trading volume related to these topics surged rapidly after his social media statements. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. was exposed to hold shares in Polymarket and also serves as an advisor to another prediction platform, Kalshi, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest and insider trading. Industry data shows that political predictions have become the second-largest category after sports prediction markets. Despite the controversy, U.S. regulators remain relatively lenient overall, continuing to promote the sector’s expansion. (Source: ODAILY)