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📶Bottom signal: ETH/BTC exchange rate divergence from the market trend
As shown in the chart, over the past 10 trading days, the ETH/BTC rate has been continuously declining, yet the market has moved upward against the trend, showing a divergence. This phenomenon is not normal.
Let's analyze: from April 8 to May 6, 2025, a similar phenomenon occurred, after which BTC soared from 76,000.
Under normal circumstances, selling the mid-tier while holding the leading asset (a declining exchange rate) indicates a cautious market, which would further turn bearish. But why is the exchange rate falling now while prices are rising?
Apart from ETH panic selling, there is only one explanation: strong buying orders for the leading asset BTC. At market bottoms, buying consensus for top assets is common, so last year, Bitcoin first rose, followed by Ethereum's rally.
But that doesn't mean we can confirm the bottom now. From a larger cycle perspective, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is generally downward, and ETH's rise and fall sometimes misalign in timing.
Even if we can't confirm now, there are signals. We can still build a bottom first, then extend the observation to 30 days to see if the signals confirm. The bottom is unlikely to be far away.