I’ve been closely tracking the evolution of Pi Network since its open mainnet launch in February 2025, and honestly, the contrast between speculative predictions and today’s reality is striking.

For those who haven’t been following, Pi Network has finally crossed the line by opening its mainnet—supposedly the decisive moment. Back then, analysts discussed price scenarios ranging from $10 to $300 depending on the context—from cautious bearish estimates to the wildest optimistic projections. IOUs were trading between $61 and $70 before launch, which fueled a fair amount of hope within the community.

But a year later, the market has delivered its verdict. The current price is around $0.17, showing just how far reality can diverge from enthusiastic predictions. It’s an interesting lesson about the risks of a mainnet launch for projects that have built up too many expectations.

The problem is that the fundamentals haven’t kept pace. The critics who pointed out discrepancies between the claimed figures ( more than 70 million users ) and actual active wallet data were right. Inflation also played its part—supply exploded without a real cap, gradually diluting the value.

What interests me now is how Pi Network will build real utility beyond the initial buzz. The deployed dApps and peer-to-peer use cases remain limited. Without concrete merchant adoption and without solid network growth, the mainnet launch price prediction people made back then already seems outdated.

For pioneers and investors watching from a distance, this is a lesson in caution. The mainnet launch wasn’t the gold rush that some imagined. On the contrary, it exposed the project’s weaknesses—centralized control, mandatory KYC verification, and privacy concerns that don’t simply go away.

The real test begins now. Pi Network has to prove it can build something sustainable, not just ride the hype. Otherwise, this mainnet launch price prediction will remain a classic example of speculation that’s out of sync with reality.