I noticed an interesting pattern in crypto cycles. Every time we enter a bear market, everyone starts guessing: how long will it last? And so I decided to analyze historical data because now, in April 2026, we are just in such a phase.

In fact, cryptocurrency bear markets are not just corrections. They are full-fledged cycles that last months, and sometimes a year. The last complete bear market was in 2021-2022: Bitcoin dropped from $69K November 2021( to $15.5K )November 2022(— exactly 12 months, a 77% decline. It was similar before: 2017-2018 )12 months, minus 84%(, 2014-2015 )14 months, minus 85%(.

The current situation has already been confirmed by analysts. Bitcoin reached its peak in )October 2025$126K , and is now trading around $77K — this is roughly a 39% correction. On-chain indicators show extreme fear, institutional ETF flows have turned negative. This is not just a correction; it’s a full-fledged bear market.

How long does such a phase usually last? Historical data shows a range of 9-18 months, averaging 12. The current cycle started in October 2025, so about 6 months have already passed. CryptoQuant analysts see the first serious bottom around the third quarter of 2026. Compass Point calls this the "final inning" with support at $60-68K.

What’s interesting: how long a cryptocurrency bear market lasts often depends on macroeconomics and institutional money flows. Previously, these were purely speculative cycles, but now ETF flows can either accelerate recovery or prolong the decline. Some traders expect a shorter cycle—3-6 months—thanks to this institutional infrastructure.

How long the bear market will last in 2026 depends on several factors. If macro stabilizes, the bottom could be in Q3 2026. If not, it could extend deeper, into the $56K-$70K range. Most experts agree: the bear phase will end somewhere in 2026, and the recovery will start later this year or in 2027.

For those experiencing this for the first time: bear markets separate disciplined investors from panickers. Those who hold their positions use DCA, accumulate BTC and ETH at discounts, earn income through staking—they then take maximum profit in the next cycle. This is not financial advice, just an observation based on experience from several cycles.