Breaking! The White House "Mad King" is detained outside the war room, causing the global crude oil pricing mechanism to collapse, and the correlation coefficient between $BTC and oil prices soars to 95%.

The Iran-U.S. conflict has entered its eighth week, and the unpredictable situation can no longer be explained by conventional logic. A few days ago, a ceasefire seemed imminent, but then the U.S. announced it would maintain the maritime blockade, prompting Iran to immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and refuse negotiations. The core characteristic of this war can only be described with one word: madness.

The source of this madness may be glimpsed from an insider report during Easter weekend. At that time, a U.S. military aircraft was shot down in Iran. The news reached the White House, and the president’s emotions briefly collapsed; he feared a repeat of historical tragedies and that it would affect his re-election prospects, demanding immediate military action. However, his staff judged that his emotional state was unhelpful for decision-making, so they removed him from the war room. The vice president and chief of staff connected remotely, tracking the rescue in real time, while the president could only wait outside.

Within twelve hours, this president shifted from a fearful individual to a “mad strategist.” After the pilot was rescued, he posted a highly insulting tweet ordering Iran to open the strait. According to insiders, this tweet was improvised, intended to make himself “look as unstable as possible,” because he believed that was the language Iran could understand. International relations scholars refer to this behavioral pattern as “the mad king.”

Under such emotionally driven decision-making, diplomatic trust was thoroughly destroyed. Last Friday, a brief window for a ceasefire appeared, with Iran showing initial goodwill by opening the strait. But instead of lifting the blockade, the U.S. ordered inspections of Iranian ships. As a result, Iran immediately turned around and closed the strait again. Analysts point out that this “yo-yoing” at critical moments has completely exhausted Washington’s strategic credibility, pushing negotiations toward deadlock.

The root of this out-of-control war lies in the rare “outsourcing” of major power strategy by the U.S… Aside from a very few, most U.S. military and intelligence leaders predicted high risks and opposed the actions. But the president completely ignored warnings from domestic experts. Some believe that Israel sold him on a quick victory fantasy, depicting a scenario where U.S. military force could swiftly secure a decisive victory without worrying about the blockade of the strait. Trump, obsessed with past quick regime changes, fully bought into it.

In the early days of the war, daily footage of explosions left him “shocked” by the scale of military power. But as the war deepened, strategic contradictions emerged: he refused the military’s suggestions to seize Iran’s oil hub islands due to fears of casualties, yet he couldn’t restrain allies like Israel from expanding attacks on their own. This constrained, hesitant stance doomed the process to complete chaos.

The most ironic part is that the initiators of the war lacked contingency plans for core issues. When oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz halted due to bombings, some White House advisors were surprised. The president later even expressed shock: “Someone with a drone can shut it down.” Market analysts bluntly state that they have no feasible plan for the strait. Markets are patient with nuclear issues but have no patience for oil flow disruptions.

The loss of political anchors directly led to the failure of financial anchors. The global crude oil market’s pricing function has already collapsed. Under normal circumstances, the main spot price spread for crude oil remains between $1 and $2. Today, with dual blockade and prolonged conflict expectations, the spread has surged to $60. Extreme bears can find quotes as low as $70, while extreme bulls see $130. This proves that the physical flow network of oil has been severed by geopolitical conflicts, and the underlying price anchors have vanished. Brent crude surpassing $102 is only superficial; in reality, the market has failed.

However, contrasting the abyss in the real economy is the “doomsday carnival” in financial markets. U.S. stocks continue to hit new highs, with funds engaging in high-frequency trading based on emotional tweets, like chasing meme stocks. Even during the ongoing conflict, the president spends considerable time boasting achievements to financiers and studying renovation plans.

But the illusory candlestick charts cannot hide the underlying despair. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index plunged to 47 points in March this year—an unprecedented low in its 74-year history, even worse than during the 2008 financial crisis, 9/11, and the 1970s inflation. It’s a classic K-shaped divide: stock market bulls raise their glasses, while the $4.09 per gallon gasoline price has shattered ordinary people’s survival bottom line.

A more sensitive question is: is the president “manipulating” the markets? Some market participants suggest he seems increasingly accustomed to releasing signals in the desired direction to influence trends, because the market remains overly focused on a single factor. Currently, the correlation coefficients among the dollar, oil prices, gold, and $BTC are close to 95%. The logic is simple: if you can predict the movements of oil and the dollar, you can almost determine the direction of all assets.

Iran has even started mocking with Lego emojis, implying that every time the president announces the strait will “soon open,” someone is shorting oil. This has become an open secret, but no one digs deeper, because market participants only want prices to go up.

The real risk of this game lies in systemic out-of-control. Analysts believe the U.S. should want to reach an agreement, as it cannot win in escalation and risks pushing the global economy off a cliff. But decision-makers sometimes seem to want an agreement, and sometimes the opposite.

This is the most dangerous aspect: not deliberate destruction, but chaos driven by decision-making confusion. One side dares not take decisive military action, yet keeps issuing the strongest threats and even contradictory signals. When the decision-makers on one side are unpredictable, no one can calculate the true equilibrium point. Once the gears of out-of-control start turning, they are hard to stop. For highly interconnected macro assets like $BTC and $ETH, they are floating in this turbulence of lost price anchors, driven only by sentiment and tweets.

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