A certain whale has accumulated $527k worth of "The Iranian regime will fall by June 30," currently at a loss of $345k.

ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), according to Odaily Seer’s Prophet channel monitoring, the giant whale at address 0xa7d1…b824 has cumulatively bought $527k worth of “the Iranian regime will fall by June 30,” and is currently down $345k. Previously, this giant whale had separately bought $176k of “the U.S. military will invade Iran before March 31” and $148k of “the Iranian regime will fall before March 31,” but both predictions failed.

According to the market’s judgment rules for this event, the “Yes” determination conditions are extremely strict: it requires that the current governing system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, and the Revolutionary Guard led by clerics) be dissolved, rendered unable to function, or replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The basis for the judgment must come from consensus among widely recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over most of the population. The rules also clearly state that ordinary political elections, internal reforms, or power handovers do not meet the criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic remains, the market will still settle as “No.”

In addition, the loss of some territories or challenges from anti-government armed groups does not constitute “overthrow” unless it results in the regime being unable to govern the majority of the population nationwide.

Odaily Seer’s Prophet channel continues to monitor the prediction market, and before pricing, it looks for changes. (Source: ODAILY)