Hey guys, I see that the market is betting heavily that the Fed will hold steady with interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch, there is a 95% chance of no change until March, and only a 4.7% chance of a cut.



But look at what's coming: as we approach April and June, the probabilities start to shift. By April, the chance of a 25 basis point cut rises to 14%, and by June it's at 31.5%. It's like the Fed is signaling they might move later on, but for now, they're staying quiet.

All of this will depend heavily on the upcoming non-farm payroll data. If the non-farm report comes in strong, I think the Fed will hold firm. But if employment slows down, then we might see some cuts happening. Everything is still open, you see?
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