Bitcoin approaches the $80k mark, ETF funds continue to flow in, is the crypto market shifting?

Original Title: “ETF Continues 6 Days of Net Inflows, Will Bitcoin Enter an $80k Short Squeeze Battle?”
Original Author: Mahe, Foresight News

On April 23, Bitcoin was trading around $78k, having broken above $79k yesterday, reaching a new high since February this year.

ETH remains oscillating around $2,400, with some altcoins surging significantly.

According to Coinglass data, over the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of open contracts across the network was $462 million, with short positions liquidated at $353 million. The latest data from CMC shows that the market fear and greed index has risen to 60, maintaining a neutral sentiment.

Global risk assets continue their rebound momentum.

The US stock market hit a new all-time high yesterday: the S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,657.57 points, up 1.64%, hitting a new record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points or 0.69%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) stabilized near 98.61, with slight fluctuations from the previous day.

Trump announced extension of ceasefire on Wednesday

Trump announced on Wednesday that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement would be extended by 3 to 5 days. Coupled with strong Q1 corporate earnings reports, US stocks quickly recovered from the previous two days of consecutive declines.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq reached new highs, with chip stocks rising for the sixteenth consecutive day, while oil prices surged in tandem, showing a divergence from market optimism.

Trump said the ceasefire was extended at Pakistan’s mediation request, and that US-Iran talks could restart as early as Friday, though Iran later denied any negotiations scheduled for Friday.

Iran’s president welcomed dialogue and agreements but criticized Trump for “contradictory words and actions”; Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that without lifting the blockade, a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices surged for the third consecutive day this week, with WTI futures rebounding to pre-breakup levels, and Brent crude approaching $102.

The three major US stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high and the Nasdaq hitting a record high, led by tech stocks. The S&P 500’s tech sector rose about 2%, the best among 11 sectors.

Additionally, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the market’s probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year has risen to 30%.

As the Middle East situation eases and expectations rise, the safe-haven attribute of the dollar weakens significantly, combined with market bets on rate cuts by the Fed this year, global funds are rapidly withdrawing from dollar assets.

Data shows that the dollar index has fallen about 2.3% since its peak at the end of March, possibly marking the worst monthly performance since August last year.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is driven by a “diminishing risk premium + policy expectation shift” dual effect.

JPMorgan has resumed its short dollar strategy, turning bullish on risk currencies like the Australian dollar; Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that emerging market currencies are rebounding across the board, reflecting a clear increase in global risk appetite.

BTC Spot ETF Achieves 6 Consecutive Days of Net Inflows

Regarding BTC spot ETFs, there have been 6 consecutive days of net inflows. From April 14 to 21, the ETF recorded positive net inflows every day.

Specifically, on April 17, the single-day net inflow reached as high as $663.91 million, a recent high; on April 14 and 20, net inflows were $411.5 million and $238.37 million respectively; April 15 contributed $186 million.

On the outflow side, only 4 days saw net outflows, with daily amounts never exceeding $400 million.

For Ethereum spot ETFs, since April 9 this year, there has been an unusual 9-day streak of net inflows.

On April 17, a single-day net inflow of $127 million was recorded, hitting a new high for the month. In terms of net outflows this month, only 4 days occurred.

Regarding stablecoins, data from DefiLlama shows that the total has risen to $320.6 billion, with net inflows of $635 million over the past 7 days.

Future Trends

Glassnode released a chart indicating that Bitcoin has recaptured the $78k level, with spot demand and ETF capital inflows both returning. Short positions, coupled with negative funding rates, create potential for a short squeeze.

However, overly high realized profits and subdued volatility signals warrant caution, and resistance remains near the $80k level.

Bitfinex tweeted that a new source of Bitcoin demand is gradually emerging.

The continuous accumulation by strategies provides more stable buying support, and clearer signs of capital flow into positions are appearing. Specifically, Coinbase Premium continues to rise, with daily net inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching about $664 million, the highest since mid-January.

All these signals point in one direction: the demand structure is repairing. Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and US spot demand are working together, supporting the price at lows and stabilizing the market. Market participation is also increasing, markedly different from previous correction phases.

Combined with yesterday’s analysis of stablecoin fund reflows, liquidity support is gradually strengthening. These two clues reinforce each other, suggesting the market may be gradually building a new trading range. This does not necessarily mean a linear upward trend, but if these trends continue, the probability of prices moving toward the upper boundary of the range is increasing.

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