Bitcoin approaches the $80k mark, ETF funds continue to flow in, is the crypto market shifting?

Original Title: “ETF Continues 6 Days of Net Inflows, Will Bitcoin Enter an $80k Short Squeeze Battle?”
Author: Mahe, Foresight News

Author: Foresight News

Source:

Repost: Mars Finance

On April 23, Bitcoin was quoted near $78k, having broken above $79k yesterday, hitting a new high since February this year.

ETH remains oscillating around $2,400, with some altcoins surging significantly.

According to Coinglass data, over the past 24 hours, the total open interest liquidation on the entire network reached $462 million, with short positions liquidated at $353 million. According to the latest CMC data, the market fear and greed index has risen back to 60, maintaining a neutral sentiment.

Global risk assets continue their rebound momentum.

Yesterday, the US stock market hit new all-time highs again: the S&P 500 closed at 7,137.90 points, up 1.05% for the day; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,657.57 points, up 1.64%, setting a new record high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,490.03 points, up 340.65 points or 0.69%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) stabilized near 98.61, with slight fluctuations from the previous day.

Trump announces extension of ceasefire on Wednesday

Trump announced on Wednesday that the US-Iran ceasefire agreement would be extended by 3 to 5 days, coupled with strong Q1 corporate earnings reports, causing US stocks to quickly recover from the previous two days of continuous decline.

On Wednesday, the S&P and Nasdaq reached new highs, with chip stocks rising for the sixteenth consecutive day, while oil prices surged simultaneously, showing a divergence trend with market optimism.

Trump said the extension was at Pakistan’s mediation request, and that US-Iran talks could restart as early as Friday, but Iran later denied the possibility of negotiations on Friday.

Iran’s president expressed “welcome for dialogue and agreements,” but also criticized Trump for “contradictory words and actions”; Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that unless the blockade is lifted, a comprehensive ceasefire cannot be achieved.

Oil prices surged sharply on Wednesday, continuing the rise for the third consecutive day this week, with WTI crude rebounding to pre-breakup negotiation levels, and Brent crude approaching $102.

All three major US stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, and the Nasdaq hitting a record high, led by tech stocks. The S&P 500 tech sector rose about 2%, the best among 11 sectors.

Additionally, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the market’s probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates once this year has risen to 30%.

As expectations for easing in the Middle East situation increase, the safe-haven attribute of the dollar has significantly weakened, coupled with market bets on rate cuts by the Fed this year, leading to a rapid withdrawal of global funds from dollar assets.

Data shows that the dollar index has fallen about 2.3% since its late March high, possibly marking the worst monthly performance since August last year.

Wall Street institutions generally believe that this round of dollar weakness is driven by a “diminishing risk premium + policy expectation shift.”

JPMorgan has resumed its short dollar strategy, turning bullish on risk currencies like the Australian dollar; Bank of New York Mellon also pointed out that emerging market currencies are rebounding across the board, reflecting a clear increase in global risk appetite.

BTC Spot ETF Achieves 6 Consecutive Days of Net Inflows

Regarding BTC spot ETFs, there have been 6 consecutive days of net inflows. From April 14 to 21, the ETF’s daily net inflows were all positive.

Among them, April 17 saw a single-day net inflow of as much as $663.91 million, a recent high; April 14 and April 20 recorded net inflows of $411.5 million and $238.37 million respectively; April 15 contributed $186 million.

On the other hand, net outflows only occurred on 4 days, with daily outflows never exceeding $400 million.

For Ethereum spot ETFs, since April 9 this year, there has been a rare 9-day streak of net inflows.

April 17 saw a single-day net inflow of $127 million, hitting a new high for the month. Net outflows this month only occurred on 4 days.

Regarding stablecoins, data from DefiLlama shows that the total has risen to $320.6 billion, with a net inflow of $635 million over the past 7 days.

Future Trends

Glassnode released a data chart indicating that Bitcoin has recaptured the $78k level, with spot demand and ETF capital inflows both returning. Short positions, along with negative funding rates, have accumulated, creating potential for a short squeeze.

However, overly high realized profits and subdued volatility signals warrant caution, and the upward space around $80k faces resistance.

BIT tweeted that new sources of Bitcoin demand are gradually emerging.

The continuous accumulation by Strategy provides relatively stable buying support for the market, and clearer signs of capital inflows into strategic positions are beginning to appear. Specifically, Coinbase Premium continues to rise, and the daily net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs once reached about $664 million, a high since mid-January.

All these signals point in one direction: the demand structure is recovering. Corporate financial buying, ETF capital inflows, and US spot demand are working together, making the support at the lows more stable, and market participation is increasing, showing a clear difference from previous correction phases.

Combined with yesterday’s analysis of stablecoin fund inflows, liquidity support is also gradually strengthening. These two clues reinforce each other, suggesting the market may be gradually building a new trading range. This does not necessarily mean a linear upward trend, but if the above trends continue, the probability of prices moving toward the upper end of the range is increasing.