A certain whale has accumulated $527k worth of "The Iranian regime will fall by June 30," currently at a loss of $345k.

ME News message: On April 13 (UTC+8), according to monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel, the mega whale with address 0xa7d1…b824 has cumulatively purchased $527k worth of “The Iranian regime will fall by June 30,” and is now down $345k. Previously, this whale had bought $176k worth of “The U.S. military will invade Iran before March 31” and $148k worth of “The Iranian regime will fall before March 31,” and both predictions failed.

Under this market’s judgment rules, the criteria for a “Yes” ruling are extremely stringent: it requires that the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Constitutional Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guard led by clergy) be dissolved, paralyzed, or completely replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The basis for the ruling must be consensus among widely recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over most of the population. The rules explicitly state that ordinary political elections, internal reforms, or power handovers do not meet the criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic remains, the market will still settle as “No.” In addition, the loss of parts of territory or challenges from anti-government armed groups, unless they result in the regime being unable to govern the majority of the population nationwide, also do not constitute a “fall.”

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market; before pricing, it looks for changes. (Source: ODAILY)