Kalshi trading volume surpasses Polymarket as two major prediction markets move into sustainability futures

According to a report by Bloomberg on April 23, Polymarket, which has long dominated prediction market trading volumes, is facing multiple operational challenges. Data from Dune Analytics shows that Polymarket’s global trading volume has been surpassed by Kalshi. In terms of valuation, Kalshi reached $22 billion after announcing a new round of funding last month. The two prediction markets simultaneously announced their move into the perpetual futures market in April.

Market share and current valuation

Based on on-chain data tracked by Dune Analytics, Kalshi’s global trading volume has surpassed Polymarket. In the U.S. market, data cited by Bloomberg shows that Polymarket’s U.S. app is still in the testing phase, and its U.S. market trading volume in March was only one-twentieth of Kalshi’s.

According to Token Terminal data, since the beginning of 2026, the two platforms’ combined weekly trading volume has remained consistently at $2 billion or more. Last month, their combined monthly trading volume exceeded $23 billion, reaching an all-time high.

Polymarket operational issues and congressional regulatory pressure

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket’s specific operational problems include: technological challenges brought by its blockchain architecture, multiple delays in launching products, recent fee adjustments that have triggered user complaints, and a time when the exchange experienced downtime of more than an hour.

In addition, Democratic members of the U.S. Congress have sent a letter to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), asking it to intervene and review Polymarket after it allowed users to bet on controversial events such as wars and nuclear explosions.

Both platforms move into perpetual futures and CFTC regulatory developments

According to an announcement published by Polymarket on X late Tuesday, April 22, the platform is accepting early user registration for a new product. The new product will allow traders to take leveraged long and short positions on assets including Bitcoin (BTC), stocks, and gold, with no fixed expiration date.

According to a report by The Information on April 22, Kalshi plans to launch cryptocurrency perpetual futures trading and may later expand to other asset categories. The Information’s same report also notes that Kalshi has obtained a CFTC margin trading license, giving it the compliance qualification to offer the above products.

According to a public statement last month by CFTC Chair Michael Selig, the CFTC plans to allow regulated perpetual futures trading within the United States in order to attract trading volume to return from offshore platforms. In March 2026, the CFTC launched a comprehensive review of prediction markets, and Selig explicitly stated that the CFTC believes such platforms should be regulated uniformly by the federal government rather than separately by each state.

According to Bloomberg, Polymarket and Kalshi are currently still facing legal pressure from multiple states. Some states accuse these platforms of needing to obtain licenses from state-level gaming regulators in order to operate locally.

According to CoinGecko data, centralized platforms led by Binance still dominate perpetual futures trading volume and open interest.

Frequently asked questions

What is the data source for the valuation gap between Kalshi and Polymarket?

According to Bloomberg’s April 23 report, Kalshi’s valuation reached $22 billion after its latest round of funding. After receiving a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange Group (ICE), Polymarket’s valuation is $15 billion.

Why is Polymarket’s U.S. market trading volume far lower than Kalshi’s?

According to Bloomberg’s report, Polymarket’s U.S. app was still in the testing phase as of the report date, and its U.S. market trading volume in March was only one-twentieth of Kalshi’s, mainly because its plans to formally enter the U.S. market were delayed multiple times.

What is the regulatory basis for Kalshi’s move into perpetual futures?

According to The Information’s April 22 report, Kalshi has obtained a CFTC margin trading license and therefore has the compliance qualification to offer perpetual futures products. Last month, CFTC Chair Michael Selig also publicly said that the commission plans to allow regulated perpetual futures trading in the United States.