Currently, the market is clearly caught in tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces. The gold price has been fluctuating back and forth between 4700 and 4790, and there is no sign of a breakout into a one-sided surge or plunge.

Yesterday, gold overall mainly traded in a range. It opened at 4720.7, and the market saw a slight drop, with the low reaching 4715. Then it slowly rebounded and moved higher, with the peak rising to 4773. After that, the market remained stable and continued to trade sideways with fluctuations.

Fundamentals show that bullish and bearish factors are about evenly matched: tensions in the Middle East have remained tight, and safe-haven sentiment has been consistently supporting the gold price; however, U.S. retail data performed well, the timing of rate cuts in the market has been pushed back, and rising U.S. Treasury yields have weighed on gold prices. Both sides have balanced strength, making it difficult for the market to see a major directional breakthrough. From a technical perspective based on the trading chart, the price action also oscillates back and forth, and the signals for up or down are not clear.

Today, gold is likely to continue small-scale consolidation with slight fluctuations. Overall, it is slightly weak and drifting lower. This is mainly because profit-taking funds from the earlier gains have exited, the dollar and U.S. Treasuries continue to exert pressure, and safe-haven sentiment has somewhat cooled—so the market overall remains range-bound and consolidates. In the short term, we expect gold to trade within a large range of 4650—4780.

Trading approach

Buy when the price pulls back to around 4660; place the stop loss at 4645. On the way up, first look for 4760-4780; if the market breaks out strongly, you can continue to look for a rise to 4800.
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