“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: A U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may make it hard to end the conflict, or it may instead escalate the risk

ME News Report, April 13 (UTC+8), “Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin published an analysis pointing out that the U.S. announced a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the “most tactically intelligent” measures in the current conflict, but it is unlikely to achieve the goal of ending the war. The strategy has two major short-term advantages: firstly, directly weakening Iran’s oil export revenue of about 1.7 million barrels per day; secondly, compared to occupying key facilities (such as Hark Island), a maritime blockade is less costly and has more controllable risks. However, the effectiveness of the related strategy faces multiple challenges, such as: the current blockade mainly targets Iranian ports rather than completely closing the strait, third-party transit routes still exist, and it also undermines the U.S.'s long-term international image of maintaining “freedom of navigation,” which could have far-reaching impacts on global maritime order. Garrett Jin summarized that although the blockade measures temporarily reshape the strategic advantage, they are unlikely to force Iran to make concessions and may instead shrink diplomatic space and prolong the conflict cycle. The market has already priced in the impact of the blockade itself, but the potential subsequent escalation paths are still not fully priced in. (Source: ODAILY)