Ultimatum! The most dangerous signals on Wall Street are back again—will $BTC and $ETH’s “golden pit” be the “mass grave”?

Over the past two weeks, the global markets have completed a textbook-level double reversal. The panic sell-off triggered by Middle East conflict fears was fully reversed in a very short period, with asset prices almost “returning the way they came.” This historic-level volatility reminded me of Soros’s reflexivity theory—prices themselves shape market expectations.

Market analysis indicates that U.S. tech stocks led this rebound, with their prices surpassing pre-war levels. Behind this is the resilience of earnings since the beginning of the year, as well as the suppression created by the AI narrative and high-interest-rate environment before the conflict, providing greater room for the rebound. Russell 2000 small caps, Asian, and emerging markets also performed strongly. In contrast, Japanese government bonds, gold, and silver lagged, with bond market recovery overall trailing behind equities.

Position and sentiment indicators show that this round of warming is driven by risk appetite, systematic investor re-accumulation, and a shift in options markets. A key detail is that during the war, fund flows and inflows into safe assets did not withdraw on a large scale, explaining why market sentiment did not fall to extremes. The put/call ratio in the options market shifted from hedging risks to hedging upside, with risk parity and CTA strategies rebalancing, jointly accelerating the rebound.

However, Goldman Sachs’s cross-asset framework issued a clear warning. Its asymmetric equity model shows that the three conditions supporting a “better win rate” are not met. First, valuation and position resets are only mild; risk appetite indicators have not turned deeply negative, and earnings resilience has hindered full valuation compression. Second, the second derivative of macro momentum has not improved; economists have lowered global growth forecasts and raised inflation forecasts. Third, while tail risks from the war have eased, they are far from over.

More alarmingly, market pricing has clearly moved ahead of actual data. Comparing global growth factors with macro surprise indices shows that asset price recovery has led economic data improvements. The upcoming Q1 earnings season will be a key validation point. Analysis suggests that S&P 500 earnings growth is still supported by tech and AI capital expenditure, but the core issue is the extent to which high energy prices and supply chain disruptions erode profit margins outside the tech sector. European companies face high exposure to Asian markets and supply chain shocks.

Based on this, Goldman Sachs estimates that the probability of the S&P 500 experiencing a deep correction of over 20% in the next 12 months remains high, while the chance of gains exceeding 35% is quite low. The current win rate in the stock market remains relatively low.

Against the backdrop of volatility retreating from highs, the cost-effectiveness of tail risk hedging tools has increased. The analysis offers two hedging strategies under different scenarios: in a soft stagflation scenario, it recommends credit market hedges, European put options, and focusing on U.S. and Chinese stocks supported by tech tailwinds; in a de-escalation scenario, it favors carry trades, rate-receiving strategies, and S&P 500 call options.

For risk assets like $BTC and $ETH, this environment of high volatility, low win rate, and ahead-of-the-curve pricing in traditional markets implies extremely high correlation risks. When growth narratives are discredited or rate shocks persist, liquidity tightening will impact all risk assets indiscriminately. The current noise may be masking underlying currents of insufficient valuation reset.

Follow me: Get more real-time analysis and insights on the crypto markets! $BTC $ETH $SOL

#Gate13周年现场直击 #WCTC trading contest to share 8 million USDT #Bitcoin rebound