$ETH The current Ethereum technical outlook is bullish, but there is a risk of overbought correction. It is recommended to adopt a cautious bullish stance rather than aggressively chasing gains.

# Technical Signal

**Bullish signals:**
- 4-hour moving averages show a golden cross (MA7 crossing above MA30), indicating a short-term trend strengthening
- Price stabilizes above the 15-minute and 4-hour MA7/MA30/MA120 in a bullish alignment
- Volume increases with rising prices, 24-hour trading volume expands along with price, indicating stronger capital participation
- 24-hour gain of 2.85%, outperforming BTC (2.17%), showing relative market strength

Risk signals:
- Multi-timeframe overbought: 15-minute WR at -16.5, 4-hour WR at -14.1, 4-hour CCI at 239.9, all in overbought zones
- MACD bullish divergence: price hits new highs on 15-minute and 4-hour charts, but MACD histogram does not confirm, hinting at potential pullback
- Fear & Greed Index at 32, in the "Fear" zone, indicating cautious market sentiment

# Positive Factors:
- ETH spot ETF continues to see net inflows, BlackRock bought approximately $89.24 million worth of ETH in a single day
- Bitmine continues accumulating ETH (about 173k ETH in April), total holdings exceed 4.97 million ETH (over 4% of total supply)
- Q1 on-chain trading volume surpasses 200 million transactions, hitting a new high, staking ratio reaches a new high of 32%
- Hong Kong ETH Hub opened, accelerating integration of traditional finance and Web3

Negative Factors:
- KelpDAO was hacked, losing about $293 million; although Arbitrum Security Council has frozen some stolen funds, DeFi security risks remain frequent
- Recent social discussion activity down 57%, market attention has waned

# Strategy Recommendations

**Short-term (1-3 days):**
- Current price at $2,391 is close to the intraday high of $2,412, with clear overbought signals from WR and CCI
- Not recommended to open new long positions now; wait for a pullback to support zones around $2,340–$2,360 before considering
- If holding existing longs, consider raising stop-loss near $2,370 to lock in profits

**Mid-term (1-2 weeks):**
- Moving average golden cross and ETF inflows provide medium-term bullish support
- Watch key support at $2,280–$2,300; as long as it holds, maintain a bullish outlook
- A break above $2,450 resistance could open further upside potential

Risk warning:
- Currently in overbought territory, chasing longs carries higher risk
- Control position sizes, avoid high leverage trading
- Set strict stop-losses to prevent MACD divergence from triggering a correction

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