【78,000 encounters resistance again — can it really not go higher this time?】

After Bitcoin first touched the 78,000 pressure level, it quickly pulled back. However, due to the strong performance of US stocks, it did not show a smooth selloff. It rebounded at the 74,000 support level (after the previous box-top resistance was broken, it turned into support). It has now broken through the previous rebound high of 78,333; the highest reached was 78,452, forming a small upper wick.

Overall, Bitcoin has come again to the upper edge of the flag pattern. We have mentioned this level repeatedly, and it has worked multiple times. Our judgment this time is: the suppression is still effective, and it is difficult for it to be effectively broken through here.

The reason is actually quite simple. Above 78,000 is an important pressure range, where the CME gap is located. The significance of this gap is largely used to help judge the direction the market will take. If this gap gets filled, it means we need to reorganize the new structure—so the trend could change.

We look at this issue from several dimensions:

First is time. Historically, there has never been a bear market lasting less than a 12-month cycle. This cycle has reached about 6 months so far, which is far from enough.

Second is space. In 2011 (a 94% drop), 2013-2015 (a 86% drop), 2017-2018 (a 84% drop), and 2021-2022 (a 78.2% drop). Although the drawdown has narrowed as the scale and capital structure have changed, it cannot shrink abruptly. Even if we assume this round’s drawdown is only 60%, it still needs to dip to around 50,000.

Finally, in terms of structure, here there is still a missing last major selloff at the higher timeframe level.

In summary, it is very difficult for this area to produce a continuous upswing that changes the trend. Since it is hard to go up, the probability of searching for space to the downside is even higher.

At this critical level, everyone should pay attention to risk. Until the price action is clear, do not blindly chase the rally—waiting for a better participation point is the optimal solution.

Strongest resistance: 78,000
Gap zone: 79,000-82,000

Pullback support: 74,000, 70,000; further downside target: 64,000.

The market is not easy to survive in—stay modest and calm, and move forward cautiously!

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