Kalshi and Polymarket will offer perpetual futures: Trump extends the ceasefire

Headlines

▌Kalshi and Polymarket Will Offer Perpetual Futures Trading

On April 22, following the competitor Kalshi’s plan to offer cryptocurrency perpetual futures trading, Polymarket also began expanding its perpetual futures trading business.

▌Trump Announces Extension of Iran Ceasefire

On April 22, U.S. President Trump posted on “Real Social” on the afternoon of the 21st local time, stating that at the request of the Pakistani Army Chief and Prime Minister, the U.S. will temporarily halt military strikes against Iran, extend the ceasefire period, and require Iran to first propose a unified negotiation plan. During this period, U.S. forces will continue maritime blockade against Iran while maintaining military readiness. He stated that the ceasefire will last until Iran submits a plan and negotiations are completed, “regardless of the outcome.” (CCTV International News)

Market Conditions

As of press time, according to CoinGecko data:

BTC price is $76,351.74, with a 24-hour change of +0.6%;

ETH price is $2,327.39, with a 24-hour change of +0.5%;

BNB price is $632.36, with a 24-hour change of +0.5%;

SOL price is $86.01, with a 24-hour change of +0.8%;

DOGE price is $0.09516, with a 24-hour change of -0.1%;

XRP price is $1.43, with a 24-hour change of +0.5%;

TRX price is $0.333, with a 24-hour change of +1.2%;

WLFI price is $0.07899, with a 24-hour change of +0.8%;

HYPE price is $39.86, with a 24-hour change of -1.8%.

Policies

▌Fed Chair Nominee Warsh Supports Incorporating Crypto into Financial System, Lawmakers Question Regulation

On April 22, Kevin Warsh stated at a Senate hearing that digital assets “have become part of the U.S. financial system,” and supports integrating them into the financial system to provide more opportunities and protections for investors. This statement is seen as a policy signal favoring openness toward the crypto industry if he becomes Fed Chair. Warsh has previously called Bitcoin “an important asset for policy making.” However, Elizabeth Warren expressed concerns during the hearing, mentioning risks such as “sock puppet” accounts in the crypto space, emphasizing the need for stronger regulation and abuse prevention.

▌SEC Chair: Advancing Digital Asset Regulation Framework and Introducing “A-C-T” Strategy

SEC Chair Paul Atkins delivered a keynote speech at the Washington Economic Club, noting that in his first year in office, he has pushed the SEC to return to its core mission of “protecting investors, maintaining market order, and facilitating capital formation,” criticizing past over-expansion of regulations that increased market friction and uncertainty. Atkins added that the SEC is accelerating efforts to establish clear regulation for digital assets, collaborating with other regulators and Congress, and has proposed an “A-C-T” strategy: advancing regulation modernization (Advance), clarifying regulatory boundaries (Clarify), and reshaping the rule system based on fundamental principles (Transform), to enhance U.S. market competitiveness and solidify its position as a global investment and business environment.

▌New York Attorney General Sues Coinbase and Gemini, Accuses Prediction Markets of “Illegal Gambling”

On April 21, Letitia James filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini, accusing them of offering “parasitic gambling” services through prediction market platforms, violating New York State law. Regulators believe these event-based trading activities (such as sports and elections) are essentially gambling, especially raising concerns about allowing 18- to 21-year-olds to participate, while New York law sets the minimum age for sports betting at 21. The prosecutors seek hefty fines and recovery of proceeds, with at least $2.2 billion claimed from Coinbase and at least $1.2 billion from Gemini. Both companies have yet to respond officially, but Coinbase stated that prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, implying their legality falls under federal jurisdiction.

▌Philippine SEC Issues Investment Warnings to 7 Crypto Trading Platforms

On April 21, the Philippine Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued investor warnings, advising the public not to invest in seven crypto trading platforms: dYdX, Aevo, gTrade, Pacifica, Orderly, Deriv, and Ostium. The SEC stated these platforms are not registered with the commission nor authorized under the Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) framework. The SEC also warned that individuals promoting these platforms within the Philippines could face criminal charges, with fines up to 5,000,000 Philippine Pesos (about $89,000) or up to 21 years in prison.

▌Iran Says It Agrees to Suspend Military Combat but War Is Not Over

On April 22, early morning local time, Iran’s state TV announced that Iran has become the victor on the battlefield. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz is a highly valuable bargaining chip Iran has gained in this war. Iran agrees to suspend military combat, but the war is not over. The state TV also pointed out that Iran must be wary of any hints suggesting Iran must participate in negotiations, or enemies will attack Iran. Even if maritime blockade is lifted, Iran’s participation in negotiations must be conditional on no issues infringing on Iran’s independence and dignity, primarily concerning Iran’s defense, missile capabilities, nuclear capabilities, and technology. (CCTV)

▌Sources Say Iran Will Not Attend US-Iran Negotiations on April 22

On April 22, Iran’s negotiating team, through a Pakistani intermediary, announced to the U.S. that they will not attend the talks in Islamabad today for various reasons, and there is no possibility of participation. Sources indicate that after Pakistan intervened to mediate and requested a ceasefire from the U.S., Iran accepted the ceasefire agreement and agreed to follow-up negotiations based on a ten-point framework they proposed, which the U.S. has accepted. Pakistan also clearly announced U.S. acceptance of this framework. However, in the following days, the U.S. began to breach this commitment. During the first round of talks in Islamabad, the U.S. made many excessive demands, effectively violating the initial framework, leading to a deadlock. Sources further state that in recent days, U.S. insistence on excessive demands—violating Iran’s absolute rights—has prevented any substantive progress. Therefore, Iran announced today that participating in negotiations would be a waste of time, as the U.S. is blocking any meaningful agreement. (CCTV)

Blockchain Applications

▌Digital Bank Revolut IPO Valuation Could Reach $200 Billion

The Financial Times, citing anonymous investors, reports that UK digital bank Revolut plans to seek a valuation of $150 billion to $200 billion in its upcoming IPO, significantly higher than its previous $75 billion valuation. CEO Nik Storonsky also revealed that Revolut is preparing for a new secondary share sale in late 2026, with a valuation potentially exceeding $100 billion.

▌Bezos AI Lab Nears $38 Billion Valuation

The FT, citing sources, reports that Jeff Bezos’s AI lab Project Prometheus is close to completing a new funding round of about $10 billion, with a post-money valuation of approximately $38 billion. JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock are involved in this round. The deal has not been finalized. Project Prometheus is not developing general-purpose chatbots; it focuses on AI capable of understanding the physical world. Its goal is to integrate models into engineering, design, and manufacturing processes. Axios last month cited insiders saying the company prefers to focus on prototyping, materials, and early engineering rather than directly replacing factory workers with robots.

Cryptocurrency

▌KelpDAO Attacker Has Transferred Over 31k ETH to Mixers & Privacy Protocols for Laundering

On April 22, on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa monitored that the Kelp DAO attacker has transferred over 31k ETH to mixers and privacy protocols for laundering, approximately $72.58 million. Over the past 15 hours, the two addresses have begun small, multiple transactions. Currently, the on-chain addresses hold 75,125 ETH, worth $174 million, and operations are ongoing.

▌Tether Mints 1 Billion USDT on Ethereum Network

On April 21, Onchainlens tracked that Tether minted 1 billion USDT on the Ethereum network. Additionally, over the past two days, Tether has cumulatively minted 2 billion USDT on Ethereum.

▌Coinbase to Launch Spot Trading for Diem (DIEM)

On April 22, Coinbase announced it will launch spot trading for Diem (DIEM). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported in certain regions, the DIEM-USD trading pair will be activated.

▌Coinbase to Launch Spot Trading for Sign (SIGN)

On April 21, Coinbase announced it will launch spot trading for Sign (SIGN). The SIGN-USD trading pair will open later once liquidity conditions are satisfied, in regions where trading is supported.

▌Coinbase to Launch Opengradient (OPG)

On April 21, Coinbase announced it will list Opengradient (OPG) for spot trading.

Major Economic Developments

▌Trump: If New Fed Chair Does Not Cut Rates, I Will Be Disappointed

On April 21, U.S. President Trump: If the new Fed Chair does not cut rates, I will be disappointed.

▌Warsh: Agreed to Sell Assets According to an Agreement with Ethics Office

Fed Chair nominee Warsh: (When asked about his investments) has agreed to sell assets in accordance with an agreement with the ethics office.

▌Fed Chair Nominee Warsh: Independence Depends on the Fed Itself

Warsh: I will be independent of Trump’s opinions. Trump tends to want the FOMC to cut rates. Independence depends on the Fed itself.

▌Iran Did Not Request to Extend Ceasefire, Officials Say US Is Using It to Buy Time for Attacks

On April 22, early morning local time, Iran’s state TV announced that Iran did not request an extension of the ceasefire. In response to Trump’s earlier statement about extending the ceasefire, an advisor to Iran’s Islamic Parliament said on social media, “Trump’s proposed ceasefire extension is meaningless. The loser has no right to set conditions. Continued blockade and bombing are no different from war, and must be responded to with military means. Moreover, Trump’s extension proposal is clearly aimed at buying time to launch a surprise attack. Now is the time for Iran to take the initiative.” (CCTV)

▌White House: Vance’s Pakistan Trip Has Been Canceled

On April 22, U.S. White House officials said that Vice President Vance’s planned trip to Pakistan on that day has been canceled. According to CNN, the official stated in a statement that, given Trump’s social media post confirming that the U.S. is waiting for Iran’s proposed plan, the visit to Pakistan will not proceed today. The White House will issue the latest updates on US-Iran face-to-face talks. (Xinhua News Agency)

▌Fed’s April Rate Hold Probability Is 100%

On April 22, according to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 100%. The chance of a 25 basis point cut by June is 1.7%, with a 98.3% chance of no change.

Gold Encyclopedia

▌Can Bitcoin Still Be Called “Digital Gold” Under Geopolitical Crises?

During every geopolitical crisis, gold prices rise while Bitcoin prices plummet. After six tests, the claim of “digital gold” has never been substantiated by data. Countries hoard gold but exclude Bitcoin from reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has asymmetries: it declines with stocks but does not rise with stocks. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from gaining safe-haven status: excess derivatives (market structure), dominance of leveraged traders (participant composition), and lack of repeated behavioral records (behavioral accumulation).

Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a “useful asset in crises.” In cases of border closures and bank failures, it can indeed serve a role. If these three asymmetries diminish, Bitcoin may no longer be a copy of gold but could become a new “next-generation gold.” Intergenerational shifts and widespread adoption of algorithms could accelerate this process.