Learning from the past: Don’t be fooled by the current “surge”—the real test is still ahead.

Recently, the market has fallen into a serious emotional misjudgment. Since the April 7 U.S. stocks ceasefire news landed, expectations of an endless “bull comeback” have been amplified without limit; this blind optimism clearly overestimates how much the situation has eased.
The fact is: there is no short-term end to geopolitical warfare, and uncertainty will suppress the valuation of risk assets for the long term.
Taking the script of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war as a reference: in the initial stage, risk-avoidance sentiment drove a breakout of the large cake above 47,000, seemingly signaling the start of a bull market; in the end, however, the following two years were a long crypto winter. As the tide receded, bare swimmers appeared.
History tells us to revere patterns: the market’s blow from geopolitical conflicts usually comes with a “lagging effect.” The current restlessness may only be a ripple before the storm—please be sure to control the pace, lie low, and wait for the right moment.
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