Let's briefly discuss the current situation in the Iran-U.S. conflict and our outlook for the market!

Right now, in the entire crypto space, the short-term ups and downs really depend on whether the Middle East negotiations can get underway. Will they actually happen or not? I'll clarify in a few minutes. Look at the current situation: Americans have already arrived in Pakistan, Vice President Vance will soon fly over as well, just waiting for Iran to come to the table. But Iran hasn't budged yet, hasn't agreed to talk. So, will they negotiate next? I'll give you the conclusion directly.

Iran is highly likely to go, but not to sign an agreement. Most probably, they will just go through the motions to buy time. Why?

First, Iran can't completely refuse to cease fire now, as the deadline is approaching. If they outright reject, the whole world will say Iran is sabotaging peace. The U.S. Vice President is already waiting for Iran, and if Iran doesn't show up, the U.S. will have a reason to escalate, gaining the upper hand in public opinion. So Iran must save face and send someone, not close the door entirely.

Second, whether Iran will truly negotiate depends on observing their bottom line. Iran's stance is clear: if the U.S. doesn't lift the maritime blockade and cancel sanctions, they won't discuss substantive issues. But the U.S. is also firm now; if negotiations fail, the blockade won't be eased. Currently, both sides' conditions are completely opposed, making an agreement difficult. They talked for over twenty hours last time, but it was all for nothing. Now Iran is playing a game—on one side, the foreign minister wants to negotiate, on the other, the Revolutionary Guards are very tough. Iran will most likely approve to talk, but it depends on the level of the delegation. If only the foreign minister goes, it’s just a token visit. Remember, Iran's probability of sending a delegation is over 60%, and less than 40% for not going.

Third, and I think the most likely scenario, is Iran sending a delegation to Islamabad to sit down and chat briefly—just to extend the ceasefire, not to discuss core issues. The U.S. will also make symbolic concessions, and the blockade will be dragged out for a few more days. For the crypto market, as long as talks start—even if just a formality—short-term prices will slightly rebound. If Iran refuses to negotiate and the conflict reignites, the crypto market will immediately fall.

In summary, negotiations are highly likely to begin soon. For the market, this is a phase of positive signals. Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely rebound in the short term, but whether there will be significant breakthroughs depends on whether Iran actually appears at the Pakistan venue and whether the delegation is at a high level.

Once this point is understood clearly, the trading approach becomes straightforward. The low point was 735 on Monday, the high was 783 last Friday. In the short term, follow the news signals and aim to rebound to fill the 775-780 gap, with a stronger push possibly reaching 815. Just follow the trend for now!

That's all. If you can't read the international situation clearly, trust Ultraman! 10 years of professional finance experience! Analyzing global trends! #比特币超话##Crypto#比特币反弹 $ETH $BTC