#比特币反弹 Is BTC falling into a trap of false rebounds? Caution when chasing the rally! Market analysis for April 21

1. News Overview
1 US-Iran negotiations focus on uranium enrichment and control of the Strait of Hormuz
According to reports, on April 21, the US and Iran may restart talks in Islamabad, focusing on restricting uranium enrichment activities and Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts say the US might accept a strategy of “management” instead of “dismantling,” but this could intensify Iran’s control over Middle Eastern energy supplies. Iran refuses the demand for “zero enrichment,” and Gulf countries see the Strait of Hormuz as a key negotiation issue. Iran’s threats to Gulf shipping have become a bargaining chip in negotiations for the first time.
2 Yi Lihua: Bitcoin may rebound to $85k
According to Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, Bitcoin could rebound to $85k, but precise levels are hard to predict and depend on expectations and risk management for profit-taking. He believes there may be a major correction in the future, which could be the last chance to bottom-fish. Trigger factors might include a pullback of US stocks from all-time highs, a simultaneous decline in risk assets, runaway oil prices, or inflation data prompting Fed rate hikes. Long-term optimism is advised, with short-term risk management emphasized.

2. Market Analysis
1 BTC surged to 76,558 in the early hours but faced resistance and pulled back, currently quoted around 75,700. The hourly chart shows consecutive long upper shadows and bearish candles, indicating significant selling pressure. Bullish momentum continues to weaken, and 76,558 has formed a short-term strong resistance. Multiple attempts to break through have failed, suggesting a preliminary top formation.
Technically, the hourly MA5 and MA10 are turning downward and converging; if weakness persists, a death cross may form, exerting downward pressure. The MACD has confirmed a high-level death cross, with bearish momentum increasing. No bullish divergence signals are present, and the pullback pressure has not been fully released. Short-term support is expected around 75,500–75,200.
2 ETH is currently trading above the mid-channel line, having slightly retreated from recent highs, consolidating within a narrow range of 2300–2310. The next move is expected to test the mid-channel support near 2260. If volume fails to follow through and the price continues to decline with small bearish candles, there is a risk of breaking below the mid-line and returning to a weak consolidation phase. Once weakened, the 2180–2210 zone could become a prime area for bullish positioning. If a short-term rebound occurs, it will likely be a small spike without a solid bullish candle, so support levels remain relevant.
In terms of trading, consider shorting in the 2340–2360 range. If the price drops near 2200, close short positions and switch to long, targeting 2340–2360.
3 Gold surged then plunged sharply, dropping 40 points! Intraday, spot gold briefly rallied to 4833, hitting a daily high, but bullish momentum quickly faded. The price faced resistance and entered a one-sided decline, breaking multiple short-term supports and dropping to a low of 4792. The intraday decline exceeded 40 points. As of the time of writing, the price is consolidating around 4797.
The decline was mainly driven by a strengthening US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields, which pressured gold prices. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts fluctuated again, and geopolitical risk sentiment cooled marginally, leading to profit-taking among gold bulls and further short-term correction pressure.
Technically, on the 5-minute chart, after the rally, the price turned downward, with MA lines forming a bearish alignment and Bollinger Bands opening downward. The price is moving along the lower band, clearly indicating a short-term downtrend. Key support is around 4790–4792; breaking below could open further downside toward 4780. Resistance on the upside is near 4810–4815; only a firm hold above this zone can ease short-term downward pressure. Trading suggestion: buy in batches around 4780–4790, targeting 4830, 4850, and higher.

Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and not trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are high risk; participation should be cautious.