Long-term Bitcoin holders increase holdings by 10%: Technical patterns point to the $90k key resistance level

As of April 21, 2026, Gate market data shows that the price of Bitcoin is $75,593.5, up slightly by 1.51% intraday. Previously, after Bitcoin briefly touched a high near $78,380 on April 17, it experienced a technical pullback, and it is currently consolidating in a high-level range. The market looks calm on the surface, but the on-chain data structures are undergoing a significant shift: on the one hand, short-term speculative positions are rapidly exiting; on the other hand, the accumulation rate of long-term holders has surged markedly over the past three trading days. This underlying logic change of “weak hands switching to strong hands” is providing an observation perspective for subsequent price formations that differs from the derivatives-trading game.

The Great Migration of Positions After a High-Level Pullback

After rebounding approximately 21% from the late-March low around $64,869, Bitcoin encountered clear selling pressure above $78,000. Although spot prices failed to break through at one go, the internal structure of the market showed no signs of panic selling. Instead, during the pullback from April 17 to April 19, on-chain indicators monitoring long-term holder behavior recorded an accumulation growth rate of more than 10%.

At the same time, the perpetual contracts market saw large-scale position cleanups. Total open interest fell by about 10% from its peak, and the funding rate also converged from the negative range toward the zero line. Leverage risk in the derivatives market was released, and the spot market’s supply-and-demand game has once again taken the lead.

Key Nodes From Rebound to Consolidation

Looking back at the recent price path, the following key nodes can be identified:

Divergence Between Spot Accumulation and Derivatives Reset

The current market exhibits a typical binary divergence structure, which forms the core basis for subsequent projections.

Derivatives Leverage Cools Significantly

After the price touched the high on April 17, the total open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts fell from about $30.46 billion to about $27.44 billion, a decline of nearly 10%. This figure indicates that during the period when the price stalled, a large number of high-leverage positions were forcibly liquidated or actively exited.

Meanwhile, the funding rate in perpetual contracts rose from the prior negative value (-0.014%) to nearly zero (-0.002%). A negative funding rate typically means shorts pay funding fees, suggesting short positions are crowded; when the funding rate returns to zero, it indicates that short-side pressure has eased significantly and the forces of longs and shorts are moving toward balance.

Derivatives Market in a “Lull Period”

From the perspective of trading and games, the derivatives market has not established new directional bets during this consolidation. There were neither signals of a short-side squeeze driven by “extremely negative funding rates with a surge in positions,” nor signals of long-side overheating driven by “funding turning positive with new highs in positions.” This is a neutral reset signal, meaning both sides in the derivatives market are watching rather than actively betting. This sharply contrasts with the leverage accumulation phenomenon commonly seen during previous rebound periods, providing an objective environment for spot buying to lead the trend.

Long-Term Holders Accelerate Accumulation

On-chain analysis indicators show that the “net holder position change” data—measuring the daily accumulation by the long-term holder cohort—has increased sharply in the short term. Specifically, this indicator rose from 32,942 BTC on April 17 to 36,482 BTC on April 19, an increase of 10.75%.

By cross-verifying the “HODL cycle wave” data, the share of short-term holders (holding for 1 week to 1 month) has compressed from about 4% on April 9 to 2.78% on April 19. This cohort is generally regarded as the most sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.

A Transfer of Chips From “Weak Hands” to “Strong Hands”

The cross-confirmation of the above data points to a clear on-chain behavioral pattern: the sell pressure that realizes profits near $78,000 mainly comes from short-term investors who entered recently. The group absorbing this sell pressure is the long-term holders, who have a longer holding duration and higher tolerance for short-term volatility. This migration of chips from addresses with high turnover to addresses with low turnover is often viewed as a forward signal of shrinking supply-side liquidity, reducing the number of floating chips that could be sold at any moment.

A Clash Between Structural Bullishness and Short-Term Doubts

The current mainstream bullish view holds that the derivatives market reset has eliminated the potential “longs killing longs” stampede risk. The long-term holders’ increased accumulation builds a relatively solid spot price support zone. Coupled with the “bullish flag” pattern in technical charts, the market generally interprets this as an upward continuation rather than a trend reversal. The core assumption is that spot demand is sufficient to absorb the remaining sell orders around $75,000.

Another view emphasizes the coordination of volume. Within the flag consolidation range, the buy-side volume in the buying zone has not been significantly amplified; it is even slightly lower than the sell-side transaction volume during the prior decline. This asymmetry in the volume-price relationship weakens the confidence of the bullish technical pattern. In addition, both tests of the flag’s upper channel ended with a rejection, indicating that supply pressure in the $75,190 area remains real. This view argues that it is too early to call a breakout until the price can firmly hold above the key resistance level.

Industry Implications of Changes in the Chip Structure

This internal structural shift in Bitcoin has benchmark significance for the broader crypto asset market.

Impact on Market Volatility

As the long-term holders’ share rises, it typically compresses the market’s realized volatility. Since this segment responds sluggishly to news or short-term capital fluctuations, if this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price volatility pattern may shift from “high-elasticity pulses” to a “steady stepwise upward” pattern.

Impact on Liquidity Conditions

Short-term speculators exiting near $78,000 means the market’s short-term speculative enthusiasm has cooled. This exited capital is currently in a wait-and-see state. If the price subsequently succeeds in breaking through key resistance, this capital could re-enter as “replenishment force,” providing a boost. Conversely, if the price breaks below key support, this capital may seek a lower level to re-enter, deepening the pullback.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market is in a delicate stage of transitioning from a spot-led logic. As of April 21, 2026, Gate market data shows the price at $75,593.5. On the surface, the clearing of leverage in the derivatives market stands in sharp contrast to the steadfast accumulation by long-term holders. Although the key resistance at $75,190 has not yet been conquered, the market’s internal risk structure has become healthier than before. Whether the subsequent trend can further develop will depend on whether spot demand can demonstrate sustained and sufficient absorption strength at key price levels strong enough to absorb short-term sell pressure. This structural change triggered by “weak hands switching to strong hands” offers a more valuable perspective on Bitcoin’s long-term supply-and-demand dynamics than just looking at whether the price goes up or down.