Lately, I've been looking at the data, and whenever the stablecoin supply increases, the group chat immediately jumps to the conclusion that "ETF money is coming in," but honestly, the correlation is too easy to be fooled. The supply increase might just be repositioning, market-making to add margin, or cross-chain transfers back and forth, not necessarily real cash being bought outside the market. The net subscription of ETFs is the same; it can reinforce spot market sentiment, but there are many channels and hedging in between, not a direct connection button.

By the way, I also thought about the recent disputes over privacy coins/mixing coins: as compliance boundaries tighten, on-chain liquidity behaviors will distort, and it's normal for the data to look either "better" or "worse." Anyway, looking at these indicators now, I prefer to suppress the causal impulse and be a bit slower, even if it means lagging behind.