Recently, I've been pondering a question: how high can Ethereum go in this bull market?

A while ago, Tom Lee proposed a $60k target during Korea Blockchain Week, which sounds quite aggressive, but if you look closely at his logic—Ethereum is in a super cycle lasting 10-15 years—this framework is actually worth considering. Bull markets don't last forever; history shows us a 94% drop in 2018 and an 80% drop in 2022, so a major correction is inevitable this time as well. But before that, let's see how high it can go now.

I've found several indicators with relatively good reference value to estimate this cycle's peak.

First, look at the 200-week moving average. This indicator is quite interesting because it reflects the long-term cost basis. Currently, Ethereum's trading price is 92% above the 200-week MA, but at its peak in 2021, this gap reached 492%. If this cycle follows historical patterns, the 200-week MA could push higher. Suppose by the end of the year, the 200-week MA stabilizes around $2,400; then, if the price is 250% above it, the corresponding Ethereum price would be $8,500. This number repeatedly appears in several of my models.

Next, consider the realized price ratio. This reflects the average cost basis of on-chain holders. The historical average ratio is 1.6, reaching 2.9 at the November 2021 peak. If the realized price rises to $3,000, using a ratio of 2.9, Ethereum's price would be $8,700. This aligns closely with the 200-week MA forecast.

The MVRV Z-score is also crucial. Currently, it's 1.66, indicating it's not overheated yet. At the November 2021 peak, it was 3.48. If this cycle reaches 3.33, the corresponding price would be $9,000. This gives us room for further upside.

The most interesting metric is Ethereum's market cap ratio to Bitcoin's. Currently, Ethereum's market cap is only 23.4% of Bitcoin's, but in November 2021, it reached 55.5%. If Bitcoin rises to $150k, with a market cap of $3 trillion, and Ethereum's market cap recovers to 35% of Bitcoin's, then Ethereum's price would be about $8,658. The key question is whether Bitcoin will surge significantly and whether Ethereum can have explosive performance relative to Bitcoin.

There's also a macro dimension—the ratio of Ethereum to Nasdaq. Currently, it's 0.20, but at the peak in 2021, it reached 0.30-0.31. If this cycle hits a new high of 0.35, and Nasdaq reaches 23,927 points, then Ethereum would be around $8,374.

Combining these models, my baseline assumption is as follows: the 200-week MA suggests $8,500, the realized price model indicates $8,700, the Bitcoin market cap ratio model points to $8,600, and the Nasdaq ratio model gives about $8,300. Interestingly, all four independent analyses point to a range of $8,300–$8,700, which is no coincidence.

If the bull market continues, Ethereum is very likely to break above $10k. But if the market turns, Bitcoin's gains will be limited, and Ethereum will also face pressure. Currently, the entire community is discussing "cycle extension," which reminds me of the narrative around the 2021 "super cycle." History often repeats, but never exactly the same. The baseline expectation is that Ethereum will reach its cycle peak within this quarter, but the specific high point depends on Bitcoin's performance and market sentiment shifts.