Lately, I've been more focused on the interest rate line when watching the market: when interest rates go up, money becomes more selective, and as everyone's risk appetite shrinks, the copycat and long-tail liquidity are the first to thin out. When slippage gets large, I hesitate to hold heavy positions; when interest rates go down and sentiment loosens, only then will people be willing to expand their positions. But honestly, the transmission isn't that smooth—there are narratives, regulations, and even on-chain congestion, which act like "experience taxes."

My current approach is pretty simple: set a macro-based cap on positions first, then gradually add based on on-chain data and user experience, avoiding those that are driven by a single needle. The NFT royalty war also feels similar... like… on one hand, wanting creators to be well-fed, and on the other, fearing to squeeze out liquidity in the secondary market; I see that in the end, it all boils down to the old question of "who bears the cost and who gets the experience." Anyway, I’ll stay steady for now—don’t treat risk appetite as a belief.