So I was looking back at my notes from August 2025 when Ethereum was making that crazy run. Remember that? ETH had just surged over 50% in July and everyone was talking about whether it could finally break through $4,000. The technical setup looked genuinely strong at the time—price well above all the major moving averages, RSI pushing into overbought territory but holding, MACD still bullish. I remember a lot of analysts were pretty optimistic about a potential push toward $4,400 to $4,500 before year-end.

There was definitely institutional money flowing in through those spot ETH ETFs, and supply was getting tighter with all the staking activity. The Dencun upgrade was also on the horizon, which people thought could boost adoption. But here's the thing—a lot of us were also watching for that pullback. July's 50% gain was massive, and overbought conditions usually don't last forever.

Looking at where we are now in April 2026, ETH is trading around $2.33K. Yeah, that's a pretty significant move from those August highs. It's a good reminder that even when technicals look solid and institutional demand is there, macro factors and profit-taking can shift things quick. The broader market cycle matters more than any single month's momentum.

Still, Ethereum's fundamentals around network upgrades and DeFi adoption haven't changed. August 2025 was just one chapter in a longer story. Interesting to reflect on what we thought would happen versus how things actually played out.