Regarding the halving cycles in the crypto market, I’ve recently been pondering an interesting question: why do some coins’ halvings trigger market celebrations, while others go unnoticed?

Looking back to 2016, the halving events then mainly involved Bitcoin and Litecoin. Bitcoin completed its second halving on July 9th, reducing block rewards from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. What happened after that halving? The price skyrocketed from $650 to nearly $20,000 within 18 months. That halving is seen as a watershed moment, marking the shift from early speculation to value investing in the crypto market.

Litecoin’s case is even more intriguing. In the three months leading up to its halving on August 26th, the price rose from $1.46 to $8.97, a 513% increase. But after the halving, market sentiment cooled rapidly, and the price then fell by 76%. This gives us a profound lesson: market expectations of halving often drive prices more than the halving event itself.

Fast forward to 2026, and the story of halving becomes more complex. This time, it’s no longer just Bitcoin and Litecoin in the spotlight. I’ve noticed several projects like Filecoin, Ravencoin, Dash, ETC, all planning halving events. Among them, ETC’s halving is particularly noteworthy — on August 29th, Ethereum Classic will experience a 20% reduction, with block rewards dropping from 2.048 ETC to 1.6384 ETC.

ETC’s situation is a bit special. As a PoW fork of Ethereum that maintains the same consensus mechanism, its halving directly inherits Bitcoin’s approach. But the problem is, ETC faces challenges like limited market recognition and liquidity. Currently, ETC’s price hovers around $8.36, with a 24-hour decline of 1.65%. Whether such a project’s halving can boost its price depends on whether the market will reassess its value.

Filecoin’s halving on October 15th might be even more interesting. As a leading project in decentralized storage, the halving could alter miners’ revenue expectations, potentially impacting network security and storage capacity. Ravencoin’s halving on January 16th is also worth watching — as a community-driven asset issuance project, the halving might trigger short-term speculation.

But here’s a key insight that needs adjusting: halving is not a guarantee of price increases. The Litecoin story in 2016 already proved that. The real impact of halving depends on several factors — the project’s fundamentals, market liquidity, regulatory environment, and most importantly, how market participants’ expectations are managed.

I see many investors making the mistake of treating halving as an absolute positive. In reality, halving only changes the supply dynamics. If demand doesn’t grow accordingly, or if the market has already priced in this expectation, then halving could instead lead to selling pressure.

For small-cap projects like FIRO, halving might cause over 10% volatility, but long-term gains depend on whether it can stand out among privacy coins like Monero and Zcash. Dash’s situation is similar — although it employs a gradual halving model, the regulatory risks faced by privacy coins shouldn’t be ignored.

My advice is, rather than chasing halving events themselves, focus on projects with solid fundamentals and growing ecosystems. The historical halvings of Bitcoin and Litecoin did change the market, but that’s because these projects have real users and use cases. For other projects, halving is just a technical event; true value creation still depends on ecosystem development.

In today’s market environment, I recommend a layered approach. Keep an eye on major projects, but avoid heavy concentration. For small-cap projects, evaluate carefully — look at what the project team is doing, community activity, rather than just the halving schedule. And remember: no technical mechanism can guarantee investment returns. Market cycles, regulatory policies, and technological substitutes all pose risks that cannot be ignored.