Breaking! U.S. and Iran clash in the Gulf of Oman, commercial ships seized, drones retaliate, negotiations deadlocked

Just in the past 24 hours, U.S.-Iran tensions have sharply escalated:

1. Direct maritime conflict: A large cargo ship flying the Iranian flag, the "TUSKA" (departed from Zhuhai, China, carrying 80k tons of industrial goods and daily necessities), attempted to break through the U.S. military blockade in the Gulf of Oman. After six hours of persuasion without success, the U.S. forces opened fire and seized the ship. Iran's Revolutionary Guard promptly launched drone attacks on multiple U.S. ships in response. It is reported that an Iranian commercial vessel successfully broke through the blockade into Iranian waters.
2. Military stockpiles remain substantial: Iran is reportedly still holding about 70% of its pre-war missile stock, 60% of launchers, and 40% of attack drones. Some weapons buried by U.S. bombings could be recovered to about 70% of pre-war levels after cleanup, enough to control the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Negotiations are completely stalled: U.S. officials say the delegation has arrived in Pakistan ready to negotiate, but Iran publicly refuses to participate, demanding the maritime blockade be lifted first. President Trump is publicly tough, but U.S. media reports he is "full of fear" internally—both sides continue to tug, and the U.S. currently appears passive.
4. Oil prices and market reactions: WTI crude oil jumped 5% at Monday's open, reaching $91.35 per barrel; major U.S. stock index futures opened lower, with Nasdaq futures down 0.9%. Oil stocks generally rose before the market opened.
5. Why is it so hard to fully start a war?
Some analysts compare it to the Russia-Ukraine war: drones turn the battlefield into an "easy to defend, hard to attack" zone. Small units + drones + artillery can inflict casualties on large-scale troop concentrations. If the U.S. deploys ground forces in Iran’s rugged mountains, it would be a hellish scenario; and without quick victory, the U.S. domestic public would not accept heavy casualties.
But Iran faces difficulties too: maritime import/export is cut off, the Revolutionary Guard’s interests are tied to oil, and without money, they can't operate effectively.
Neither side wants war, but both have to negotiate—yet now, even talks are impossible.

Maritime clashes have occurred, no one is at the negotiation table, oil prices are soaring, and the risk of full-scale war has clearly increased, but there are still hurdles to open conflict. The next few days are critical—whether Iran will be forced to come to the table or if the conflict will escalate further. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌