BTC mining difficulty decreases by 1.1%: Industry restructuring behind the scenes — miner profits under pressure, AI becomes a new way out

Bitcoin network mining difficulty in the latest adjustment in April 2026 decreased by approximately 1.1%, from about 137.1 T to around 135.5 T. The direct cause of this adjustment is a phased decline in the total network hash rate—when computational power participating in mining decreases, the difficulty adjustment algorithm automatically lowers the difficulty to maintain an approximately 10-minute block interval. From a deeper industry logic perspective, difficulty reductions often reflect a lagging response to miners’ profit pressures: when the price of hashpower remains below breakeven for a long time, higher marginal costs force less efficient miners to shut down or exit, reducing hash rate supply, and causing difficulty to fall. In the first quarter of 2026, the total network hash rate dropped by about 4%, marking the first quarterly contraction since 2020, indicating that post-halving, the deterioration of mining economics has begun to substantially alter the hash rate supply structure.

Notably, this adjustment was relatively moderate, but industry consensus generally expects it to be only a brief respite. According to CoinWarz data, the next difficulty adjustment is projected for May 1, 2026, when difficulty will rise from 135.59 T back to approximately 137.43 T. This “first down, then up” rhythm suggests that although some miners have temporarily exited, leading mining companies are still deploying new generations of mining machines to sustain the structural support at the bottom of hash rate.

What does the lowest hash rate price since halving imply?

The core indicator measuring miners’ profitability—hash price—has now fallen to about $27.89 per PH/s/day, hitting the lowest level since the April 2024 halving. This data directly reflects the value of unit output for miners: with 1 PH/s of hash power, they can earn less than $28 daily. Compared to before the halving, in Q4 2025, the hash price was maintained around $36 to $38 per PH/s/day, so the current level has dropped over 25% from that period.

The collapse in hash price stems from dual pressures on supply and demand. On the supply side, although the total network hash rate has retreated from its peak, it still remains near 1,000 EH/s, indicating intense mining competition persists; on the demand side, Bitcoin spot prices have fallen from a high of about $124,500 in October 2025, and have been oscillating in the $70,000 to $75,000 range without a clear breakout, leading to a continuous decline in unit output measured in USD. More critically, according to CoinShares, the weighted average cash cost for listed miners to produce one Bitcoin has risen to about $79,995, well above the current market price, meaning most miners are operating at a cash loss per Bitcoin mined.

The survival logic behind record-breaking miner sell-offs

When mining cash flow can no longer cover operational expenses, miners are forced to shift from “long-term holders” to “passive sellers.” In Q1 2026, North American listed miners—including MARA Holdings, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms, Cango, Core Scientific, and Bitdeer—sold over 32,000 BTC. This scale not only exceeds the total sales of all four quarters in 2025 but also surpasses the approximately 20,000 BTC quarterly sales during the Terra-Luna collapse in Q2 2022.

Looking at the selling pace, some miners acted very aggressively. MARA sold over 15,000 BTC in March alone; CleanSpark’s February sales accounted for over 97% of that month’s production. Riot sold 3,778 BTC in Q1 2026, raising about $289.5 million—twice its output for the same period. Core Scientific liquidated about 1,900 BTC in January, cashing out $175 million. Bitdeer became the first publicly listed miner to announce “zero Bitcoin holdings.” These series of sell-offs go beyond normal liquidity management, fundamentally reflecting a structural shift from “passive hodling” to “survival-driven asset reallocation.”

Why have miner profits continued to be under pressure after halving, without recovery?

The April 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The immediate impact of halving should be gradually offset by rising Bitcoin prices. However, this cycle exhibits a structural contradiction different from previous ones: the increase and persistence of Bitcoin prices have been less than expected. Wintermute analysts note that this cycle failed to achieve the typical doubling of price seen after past halvings. Since Q4 2025, Bitcoin’s price has been declining from the high of about $124,500, compounded by high energy costs maintained by global geopolitical tensions, creating a dual squeeze on miners’ income.

According to CoinShares, under current economic conditions, about 15% to 20% of miners are unprofitable. More concerning is that the next halving (expected in 2028) will cut the block reward further from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. If hash price cannot effectively rebound by then—meaning Bitcoin’s price does not increase multiple times—the marginal profitability of mining will approach zero, posing a more severe structural challenge. Historically, miners tend to recover profitability only after Bitcoin prices rise above their costs, but the time window for hash price recovery in this cycle has been significantly extended.

Why are leading miners shifting hash power from mining to AI?

In the context of sustained profit pressures, listed miners are undergoing an unprecedented strategic transformation. The core logic is that their years of accumulated energy infrastructure, power contracts, and operational experience align closely with the urgent demand in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) sectors for large-scale, high-density computing infrastructure. Converting existing mining farms into GPU-based hosting centers typically takes less than a year, compared to three to five years for traditional data centers.

Economically, this transition makes clear sense. Bitcoin mining’s gross margins are highly volatile, affected by both Bitcoin price and difficulty. In contrast, AI infrastructure offers long-term, stable hosting service contracts with gross margins exceeding 85%, and multi-year revenue visibility. Currently, listed miners have signed over $70 billion worth of AI and HPC contracts. Core Scientific and CoreWeave have contracts valued at $10.2 billion; TeraWulf expects $137.1T in HPC revenue; Hut 8 has signed a 15-year, $7 billion contract. CoinShares estimates that by the end of 2026, some top miners will derive 70% of their revenue from AI workloads, up from about 30% today; Core Scientific already earns 39% of its revenue from AI co-location services. Essentially, these companies are transforming from “Bitcoin miners” into “data center operators with Bitcoin mining capabilities.”

Will hash power shifting to AI threaten Bitcoin network security?

The large-scale shift of miners toward AI raises an unavoidable question: when hash power is diverted from the Bitcoin network to AI computing tasks, does it threaten Bitcoin’s security? Theoretically, a significant decline in total hash rate could increase the risk of 51% attacks. Data already shows a trend of hash rate contraction—Bitcoin’s total hash rate has fallen from a peak of about 1,160 EH/s in October 2025 to around 920–1,000 EH/s, with three consecutive difficulty adjustments being below expectations, the first such occurrence since July 2022.

However, assessing this risk requires more nuance. First, Bitcoin’s security model relies on an absolute hash rate threshold: as long as the remaining hash rate remains well above any single attacker’s computational capacity, the network remains mathematically secure. Second, as noted by cryptocurrency expert Adam Back, the diversion of hash power “may not necessarily be negative”—it could foster more resilient and diversified infrastructure, supporting the industry’s long-term health. The real concern is that the decreasing number of independent miners could lead to further centralization of hash power among top players, posing a potential challenge to Bitcoin’s original decentralization design. Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s built-in difficulty adjustment mechanism ensures the network can operate stably at any hash rate level—so long as mining remains economically viable, hash power will reconfigure according to price signals.

How is the mining landscape being reshaped?

From a longer-term perspective, the current Bitcoin mining industry is undergoing its largest structural reorganization since China’s mining ban in 2021. Hash rate is shifting from “single-purpose mining” to “hybrid infrastructure,” with miners evolving from “hash rate producers” to “hash infrastructure service providers.” This transformation reflects not only opportunistic financial decisions but also a fundamental restructuring of high-energy-consuming computing infrastructure in the digital economy.

Market pricing signals further reinforce this trend: miners with secured HPC contracts are valued at about 12.3 times their projected 12-month revenue, while pure-play mining companies are valued at only 5.9 times. This valuation divergence incentivizes more miners to accelerate their transformation. Meanwhile, regulatory developments are reshaping the industry landscape. In March 2026, the US SEC and CFTC jointly classified Bitcoin as a “digital commodity,” providing clearer compliance frameworks for mining; proposed “U.S. mining legislation” aims to promote the return of mining capacity to the U.S. These policy directions will influence future geographic distribution and industry concentration of hash power.

Can miner sell-off signals serve as market bottom indicators?

Miner sell-offs are traditionally viewed as important sentiment and cycle signals in crypto market analysis. How does the scale of sell-offs in Q1 2026 compare historically? During the Terra-Luna collapse in Q2 2022, miners sold a total of about 7,900 BTC over two months, at a time when Bitcoin’s price had fallen nearly 70% from its all-time high of around $69,000, leading to large-scale bankruptcies among top miners like Core Scientific. The current quarter’s sell-off of over 32,000 BTC significantly exceeds that previous bear market surrender volume.

Looking at the holding positions, miners’ total Bitcoin holdings have decreased from about 1.86 million at the end of 2023 to roughly 1.80 million now—a net reduction of about 60k BTC over two years. This contrasts sharply with the behavior before halving, when miners tended to accumulate. Historically, large-scale miner capitulation often occurs near market bottoms, but it is not an absolute timing indicator. More importantly, the nature of this round’s sell-off differs: it is not only a passive response to cash flow pressures but also a strategic move to fund AI transformation. This suggests that the ongoing sell-off could last longer than previous cycles, with a more complex impact on supply-side market dynamics.

Summary

The difficulty in Bitcoin mining in April 2026 was adjusted downward to 135.5 T, reflecting mechanism-driven regulation, but the underlying industry pressures go far beyond the number itself. Hash price has fallen to $27.89 per PH/s/day—the lowest since the April 2024 halving—coupled with record-breaking miner sell-offs exceeding 32,000 BTC in a quarter, revealing a structural profitability crisis. The economic model post-halving is undergoing an unprecedented stress test: Bitcoin prices have failed to hedge reward reductions as in past cycles, energy costs remain high, and the next halving’s anticipation further compresses industry outlooks.

In this context, leading miners are accelerating their shift from “hash rate miners” to “digital infrastructure providers,” with AI and HPC hosting becoming new growth drivers. This transformation offers diversified revenue streams in the short term and could reshape the global hash infrastructure landscape in the long run. However, it also raises new questions about Bitcoin network security and decentralization. The industry’s restructuring is ongoing, and its ultimate trajectory will depend on a complex interplay of Bitcoin prices, energy costs, AI computing demand, and regulatory policies.

FAQ

Q: What impact does the difficulty adjustment in April 2026 have on ordinary investors?

A: The difficulty adjustment, at about 1.1%, suggests a short-term decrease in network competition and block production speed. However, since the next adjustment is expected to rise back to 137.43 T, the actual impact on network security and block times is limited. For investors, more relevant are the signals about miners’ profitability and sell-off behaviors, which could influence Bitcoin’s supply-side pressure.

Q: Does a hash price of $27.89 per PH/s/day mean miners are truly losing money?

A: It depends on miners’ actual electricity costs and hardware efficiency. Large miners with low electricity costs (e.g., below $0.03 per kWh) and using the latest equipment (like Antminer S21 series) can still maintain slim profits. For those with higher energy costs or older hardware, current hash prices are well below breakeven, and CoinShares estimates that about 15% to 20% of miners are operating at a loss.

Q: Will shifting hash power to AI cause long-term declines in Bitcoin hash rate?

A: In the short term, some hash power is diverted from Bitcoin to AI tasks, but these are not mutually exclusive—miners can deploy ASICs and GPUs at different times or facilities. In the medium to long term, AI-related revenue diversification enhances miners’ resilience and financial strength, potentially supporting hash rate stability at the bottom. The Bitcoin difficulty adjustment mechanism ensures network stability at any hash rate level, provided mining remains economically viable.

Q: Is the current miner sell-off a sign of capitulation?

A: Multiple indicators—three consecutive difficulty reductions, hash price hitting record lows, and over 32,000 BTC sold in a quarter—suggest miners are in a capitulation phase. However, part of this sell-off is driven by strategic shifts toward AI, so its implications differ from past cycles. It should be interpreted in conjunction with Bitcoin price trends and AI transition progress.

Q: Does AI transformation mean the end of Bitcoin mining?

A: Not necessarily. Bitcoin mining and AI computing can coexist and even complement each other. Miners are evolving into “hybrid infrastructure operators,” providing AI hosting services while continuing to run ASIC mining. As long as Bitcoin prices cover marginal costs, mining will persist. AI transition is more about diversifying business models than replacing mining altogether.