By carefully observing the order book, you can see that the current market rhythm is precisely replicating the waterfall move from the beginning of the year, when it hit the 9.7w high position. The structure, volume, and sentiment are all fully echoing it, and signals of a pullback at a higher-level are already showing.

7.83w is very likely the stage ceiling that will be difficult to break through over the next six months. Once a turning point is confirmed to be heading downward, the room below is highly imaginable. The testing of the 6w to 5w range is almost a sure thing.

At present, the biggest uncertainty lies in whether the U.S.-Iran conflict can ease in the short term. Combined with dense short-position liquidity above and extreme negative funding rates, the battle between bulls and bears is heating up to a boil—just see whether the main capital will follow the short-side trend and provide ample downside room.
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