4.20 BTC Afternoon Market Analysis

I. Logical Support

1. Technical Structure
- 4 hours: Retreat from the high of 78,300; MACD forms a death cross, green bars expand in volume, short-term moving averages are bearish; the near-term bias is bearish
- Daily: Still above the medium- and long-term moving averages; the mid-term bullish structure has not been broken; this is currently a pullback within a high-level range-bound consolidation
- Intraday: 75,600 is the intraday minor top, and 73,800 is today’s low; sell-off volume increases while rebound volume decreases; bears have the upper hand
2. Capital and Sentiment
- 24h total liquidation across the entire network: $317 million, 160,000 people; leveraged funds are panicking and exiting
- A dense concentration of trapped positions at 75,000-76,000; rebounds are likely to run into heavy sell pressure
- Institutional ETF still shows net inflows; there is buy-side support at 73,500-74,000
3. Time Window
- Late European session + early US session; volatility increases; before 19:00, directional breakout is more likely

II. Trend Qualification

- Major trend: Mid-term bullishness (daily structure intact)
- Short-term (until 19:00): High-level bearish-leaning range oscillation; rebound-to-sell is the primary approach, low longs as a secondary approach
- Key boundaries
- Resistance: 75,600 (first), 76,200 (strong resistance)
- Support: 74,000 (first), 73,500 (strong support)

III. Practical Trading Goals (Precise Trading)

1. Short selling (main strategy)

- Entry: 75,300-75,600
- Target: 74,000
2. Low longs (secondary strategy, light position)

- Entry: 73,800-74,000
- Target: 74,800-75,000
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